Most of us were stunned at the Machiavellian maneuvering on the last day of the filing period for public office in Montana.
After a brief period of “will he or won’t he file as a Democrat,” Seth Bodnar filed as an independent for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat on March 4 at 9:17 AM.
Some time after that Steve Daines withdrew from the Senate race.
Billings lawyer, Kurt Alme, filed to run for the Senate seat at 4:52 PM on March 4, just eight minutes before the deadline.
So here’s one reason for the last minute shuffle on the filing deadline.
Republicans understood that Seth Bodnar could be a compelling candidate if he filed as a Democrat. Much less so if he filed as an independent. Incumbent Daines is the strongest person to protect that Republican seat from a serious Democratic challenge.
Early in the morning of the last day to file Bodnar files as an independent which kicked off this Spy vs Spy conspiracy. Daines resigns. Hours later Alme announces he is running with the support of Daines, President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy and Gov. Greg Gianforte. Obviously this plan has been in the works for some time.
But why would Daines do this now rather than waiting until after the election? It’s hard to argue that Alme or anyone else in the Republican ranks would be as strong a candidate as Daines, who has the power of incumbency and $4.9 million in the bank before the race even starts.
The answer is simple. If Daines resigned after the election the process to fill a vacant Senate seat is that the State Republican Central Committee nominates three people, and the Governor selects from those names. And the truth is the GOP in Montana is dominated by far-right looneys and Daines and his pals didn’t trust them to nominate someone who doesn’t wear a tin hat to bed. Someone like Alme (who would be a big improvement over Daines in the Senate).
Or it could just be that Daines is a megalomaniac who couldn’t stand not choosing his successor.
The Conservative Choice for Cascade County! VoteGeorge Nikolakakos
It all started when local Republican legislator George Nikolakakos posted an award he won from the Conservative Political Action Conference for conservative achievement. Sleazy Jake just couldn’t stand it, and the fight was on.
But first a little background. Most of our readers know that Nikolakakos is a “traditional” Republican legislator from Cascade County. The Liberty Bell, a far-right paper you find at some local stores, compares Nikakakolas and his legislator wife, Melissa, to Julius and Ethel Rosenberg. The Rosenbergs were convicted of espionage and executed in 1953 during the Cold War.
Jake Eaton is a right-wing political operative out of Billings. He has most recently aligned himself with the most right-wing elements of the Republican Party. Beyond that he has a long record of playing fast and loose with facts and money. For some details about Eaton, check out WTF406.com’s previous post. The background on Eaton begins about halfway through this post about attack ads directed at Matt Rosendale. https://wtf406.com/2023/10/rosendale-slimed-in-new-tv-ads/
Let’s Get Back to the Fight. It begins with George’s announcement.
(the below exchange is copied directly from Facebook. No edits have been made)·
Jake Eaton responds
In no world is George a conservative. He voted for higher taxes and huge increases spending. Along with supporting Democrats efforts to block judicial accountability. He could generously be called a moderate Republican. The only way you could call him a conservative is if you were referring to him as a conservative Democrat.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton I appreciate your “generosity” Jake! Why would our conservative Governor support these “higher taxes” and huge spending increases? No one buys that bullshit. Why do you hate our Governor so much? I’m proud to stand by his agenda and our accomplishments.
Also you’re right! I’ve knocked many thousands of doors… The way we turned Great Falls from blue to red in 5 years is because old school common sense conservative ex-democrats and independents have rejected woke BS and want normal people to represent them. Tester won my district while I won it by 25 points. That’s because the people of Great Falls still want independent minded, real, common sense conservatives, not burn it all down cos-play garbage.
Jake Eaton to George Nikolakakos
everyone can see that your tax shift raised taxes on farmers, ranchers and small businesses. They just look at the bills and see they are higher than last year – pretty simple. I’d think even a dimwit like you could read the tax bills and understand that. This legislature spent billions more than the Governor’s proposed budget. $1 billion alone in the Llew Jones bureaucracy slush fund.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton
Funny because when I’m knocking doors I pull up I-tax and show people their tax bills. Almost every time it’s $500+ less. That’s because for 90%+ plus it is. And what they can’t see is the other 500 that would be higher if we didn’t pass the Governors Homestead exemption. Why are you standing with out of state Big Sky short term rental billionaires against hard working Montanans trying to raise families and retire here? Sad!
Eric Hinebauch, Chair of the local Republican Central Committee, to Jake Eaton you are a hard one to figure out! You sure like to run your mouth against our local legislators, but here’s the deal Cascade County homeowners experienced real tax breaks. So keep running your mouth, but Cascade County knows better than to listen to some career hired gun. Jake you are the SWAMP in Montana, we need more George Nikolakakos’s and less SWAMP creatures like Jake Eaton!
Jake Eaton to George Nikolakakos
yes you shifted taxes from homeowners to farmers, ranchers, renters and small businesses. You didn’t reduce the amount of money being collected you just shifted who pays for it. Ask the renters who are seeing double digit rent increases thanks to your vote how much they care that you saved $500. Ask the small businesses paying thousand more on their commercial space if they care about their $400 rebate on their house. Also you clearly don’t even know what you voted for, the homestead exemption hasn’t even gone into effect yet, that begins in tax year 2026.
Jake Eaton to Eric Hinebauch
homeowners may see a break but thanks to the tax shift renters, farmers, ranchers and small businesses are paying more. We didn’t actually cut taxes or reduce the money being collected from property taxes we just shifted who pays it. Cascade county does have some good legislators, George is not one of them.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton
lame talking points paid for by the folks who buy your mouth as a hired gun. Ag was made whole which is why Farm Bureau and others didn’t oppose our prioritizing real Montanans. Small businesses saw a cut. The big players who saw cuts at our expense over the last 10 years are back at less than inflation increases, still less than they paid a few years go. We’re not paying for your crony special interests anymore bud. And we cut every. single. human Montanans income tax. And we balanced the budget. And we saved for a rainy day. And we properly funded law enforcement, roads, trades education, firefighting etc. My comments are not bought and paid for my special interests. Who is paying for your commentary today?
Jake Eaton to George Nikolakakos
I like that you totally ignored renters and small businesses and tried to focus on ag, when in reality they are also seeing increases. The difference between us actual conservatives and big government republicans like you is that you are fine with every increasing government spending, we are not. We all want to fund firefighting, police and roads but there is room to cut local spending and reduce the overall property tax burden. For example the Great Falls city administrator makes $70,000 more than the Governor. In Billings it’s $80k more. The Great Falls Public Schools Superintendent makes $50,000 more than the State Superintendent of schools. In Yellowstone county it’s $75k more. These local budgets are even more bloated than Llew Jones’ state budget and there is plenty of room to cut and reduce property taxes across the board.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton
when did you start caring about renters? I passed an overwhelmingly supported Elderly and Homeowner/renter tax credit increase and had the govenror sign my bill to cut millions in property tax relief on PTAP. Renters do well under the new law as landlords like me have seen decreases. I own dozens of rentals and have seen decreases as have landlord friends. Certainly administrators can work for less. I support local governments who control those decisions making them. You support centrally assessed out of state players getting relief on our backs.That’s because they pay your salary and for the the words coming out of your mouth.
So, what does all this mean?
#1. The Republican party is eating their own.
#2. It is laughable to consider Nikolakakos a “moderate” in view of his voting record.
We are writing about the recent news coverage of your potential run for the U.S. Senate. If you are seriously considering such a run, we urge you to run as a Democrat rather than as an Independent.
Those urging you to run as an independent because a Democrat “can’t win” are wrong. Their opinion is apparently based on polling and Jon Tester’s recent loss to Tim Sheehy. Some “professional political people” in Montana are advocating that organizations and institutions forming the traditional Democratic base support moderate Republicans and Independents rather than Democrats out of desperation. They are mistaken. We wrote a blog post on the past performance of Independent candidates in Montana. We urge you to read it: https://wtf406.com/2026/01/handing-steve-daines-the-next-election/
Before going further, we would like to point out that the public discussion of this Independent scheme is all about strategy and game playing. Politics, at its best, is about the issues and policy initiatives to address those issues. At its worst, politics is anything-goes cynical game playing. . . and lots and lots of special interest money. Obviously, this Independent strategy falls into the second category.
In addition to the historical evidence in our post, we urge you to consider a couple other points.
First, the idea that your race as an Independent will avoid the tarnished brand of Democrats is naive. Before you have even announced, the Republicans are out with an attack ad: https://www.montanarightnow.com/montana/political-group-releases-ad-targeting-departing-um-president-seth-bodnar/article_309940b3-3514-463e-bbb9-ffd45149f759.html. The chair of the Missoula Republican Central Committee has an editorial circulating in papers around the state calling you “Sneaky Seth” among other things. Whether you run as an Independent or a Democrat, you will be smeared by the Republican attack machine. Steve Daines will be extremely well funded and will run a dirty campaign.
Second, Democratic base voters are a significant segment of the population you would have if you prevail in the primary. Instead of looking at polling, which is increasingly unreliable, we encourage you to look at actual election results in Montana. The 2024 election in the Eastern Congressional District illustrates the value of Democratic base voters. The Democratic candidate in that race was John Driscoll. Despite the fact that Driscoll ran virtually no campaign, he garnered 33.9 percent of the vote simply because he had a “D” behind his name on the ballot. That percentage would be even higher in the Western District. In the Eastern District race in 2022, Independent candidate Gary Buchanan captured only 22 percent of the vote.
As the deadline for filing approaches, we hope you will carefully consider which party more closely aligns with your beliefs on issues and realize that you have very little chance of prevailing as an Independent in Montana.
Former legislator Steven Galloway has filed to run in senate district 11 in Cascade County. This video of Galloway at some Trump event says it all. If this offends you, consider running yourself. The deadline for filing is March 4th.
Some political consultant types are working to hand the next election to Steve Daines. We all know that beating Steve Daines in the next election will be tough, but if there was ever an election cycle where Democrats had a chance of beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a red state, it is the 2026 election.
Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior combined with his callous disregard for the welfare of the country may well be wearing thin, even with his normally staunch supporters in the Republican Party. He is mired in a sex scandal, his economic program is driving up prices, he has unleashed masked thugs on the American public, and he has turned to foreign military actions in Venezuela, which angers some in his “America First” base.
Trump’s poll numbers are dropping. Recently Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned him. Seventeen Republican members of the U.S. House abandoned him to vote to extend the ACA subsidies. Five Republican Senators voted against him in passing the War Powers Act Resolution. But the Montana delegation, and particularly Steve Daines, are “all in” with Trump. . . .and Daines is on the ballot in 2026. Trump could prove to be a political liability.
Enter the consultant class in Montana. Tired of losing elections they have concluded that the problem is the Democratic “brand.” Of course it could be that consultants and pollsters don’t know what they are doing and Democrats are in the mess they are in because they have been listening to consultants for far too long. No doubt they have polling that shows a Democrat just can’t win. Their solution is simple. Dump the Democrats and run for the middle of the road as “independents.” They do all of that while pointing fingers at the “extremists” in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they are finding support among frustrated groups and individuals who blame electoral losses on the Democratic Party.
This is not a new idea. The problem is, it doesn’t work. In 2022 the “ideal” independent candidate surfaced in the Eastern District Congressional race for investment advisor, Gary Buchanan of Billings. Buchanan had worked in Republican (Racicot) and Democratic (Schwinden) administrations on economic development. He was a well established presence in the business community and was known for his moderate positions on issues. In the election he was running against a relatively unknown Democrat named Penny Ronning and the controversial Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent, Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale raised a little over $2 million, Buchanan raised about $500,000 and Ronning raised around $175,000. In the final vote count, Rosendale won with 57% of the vote. Buchanan only garnered 22% of the vote, barely beating Democrat Ronning’s total of 20%, despite having more than twice as much money.
Another telling independent campaign failure in Montana occurred during the 2024 election for Public Service Commission District #4 in the northwest corner of the state. In that race Republican incumbent, Jennifer Fielder, faced a challenge from independent candidate, Elena Evans. Evans raised around $50,000. In addition an “independent committee”, the Montana Ratepayers Association, reported spending nearly $500,000 for the race to support Evans and defeat Fielder. Fielder raised around $12,000. Despite the fact that the independent outspent the Republican and an unprecedented amount of money was spent by a dark money group supporting her, Evans received only 47% of the vote.
Two ballot measures which were predicated on taking advantage of people’s frustration with the two party system and implementing changes to our election process in the 2024 election – CI-126 and CI-127 (inaccurately referred to as the open primary initiatives) – failed by 51.1% and 60.4% respectively. This despite the fact that the campaign supporting them was well organized and well funded and there was no organized opposition.
The consulting group managing the ballot measures was a group called Fireweed. PSC candidate, Elena Evans, paid them at least $21,000 of the total she raised for her campaign. And rumor has it that Fireweed and others are approaching the Democratic Party about rule changes that would facilitate the party election of independent candidates.
Of course most people say they are fed up with the two party system. Polling routinely shows relatively large numbers of people who self identify as independents. But that does not show up clearly in voting trends. If split ticket voting is any indication of party loyalty, or lack of it, it appears that Montana voters are becoming more partisan. A recent analysis of split ticket voting done by the Montana Free Press relied on data from one researcher who said that some split ticket rates dropped from 20% in 2018 to 8% last year. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/
Having an independent candidate, particularly a strong independent candidate as envisioned by the proponents of this idea, is dumping cold water on all down ticket Democrats on the ballot. Traditionally, Democrats in local, legislative and state-wide offices have benefitted from the campaigns at the top of the ticket. . .the so-called “coattail effect.” An independent at the top of the ticket will be punching down every time he is asked, “Why didn’t you run as a Democrat?” One can only hope that the Democrats running for other offices are paying careful attention to this effort.
So, now the rumor getting all the buzz in Helena hallways is that there is a group, paid political consultants (ie Fireweed) and others, promoting a run by University of Montana President Seth Bodner as an independent against Daines. Doing so would virtually hand this election to Steve Daines. The best they could achieve is to split the anti-Daines vote between the Democrat and the Independent. In the process they further weaken the Montana Democratic Party. It’s hard to understand how all of these so-called smartest people in the room come up with these harebrained schemes.
