Alternative Titles: “2026: Blue Wave” or “Democrats Make Gains and Republicans Freak Out”
Great Falls, MT
The filing period for candidates has closed in Montana. So how are things looking? The energy reminds me of 2018, because of all the Democrats filing. Every legislative district in Cascade County has a Democrat on the slate. That is the best candidate recruitment we’ve seen since 2018. Really good news for Democrats. The left leaning folks are fired up and ready to go!
Behold this map! We can make it all blue, not just HD 19 that we hold right now!!
Well sorry folks we can’t celebrate too long. It’s back to the grind again, because the Republicans are imploding and trying to take us with them.
What Republican Tantrum Do We Have to Deal With Now?
State Representative George Nikolakakos is BIG MAD about it. He ranted on his public Facebook that Kevin Leatherbarrow, a candidate for HD-22, “is a perennial Libertarian candidate”…”running as a “Constitutional Republican” (whatever that means in his mind).” When Tony Rosales (the chair of the local Libertarian Party) filed to run in HD-20 against George’s wife Melissa, fellow State Representative George Nikolakakos declared, “It’s raining crazy in Great Falls with the filing deadline over!”
Looks like the Cascade County Libertarians and Republicans won’t be singing kumbaya together any time soon. Dang.
MAGA Republicans Filing as Democrats
If you squint, you can see how Libertarians and Republicans can overlap. But MAGA and Democrats? No.
But somehow the dumbass loony toons of James Whitaker and Mark Winters decided to file in Montana Senate Districts 11 and 12, respectively as Democrats. As if the voters wouldn’t notice James Whitaker running concurrently for a Republican precinct person position (an elected position as a voting member in the local Cascade County GOP), and the fact that Mark Winters is/was a Republican precinct person until he stepped down a couple of days after filing.
The Chair of the Local Republican Party had this to say about both candidates:
Eric Hinebauch, chair of the Cascade County Republican Central Committee and a member of the Cascade County Commission….believes the pair filed in Democratic primaries to deter Democratic voters from crossing over to vote in Republican primaries. He told Montana Free Press that he doesn’t believe either candidate is really a Democrat.
(quote from the Montana Free Press article: https://montanafreepress.org/2026/03/12/two-candidates-in-cascade-county-claim-to-be-democrats-local-party-leadership-says-thats-a-hoax/)
You Decide – MAGA or Democrat?
I will summarize some items I found in a 5 minute Google search and let you the reader be the judge! Do these people seem like Democrats? Would you say that their candidacies for the nominations were made in good faith? Or….do you think they are lying to the voters?
Google Search Results on Whitaker and Winters:
James Whitaker
Mark Winters
Running to be a Republican precinct person in the 2026 election
Ran for HD-22 as a Republican in 2024
Local GOP Party chair says he is not a Democrat
Was a Republican precinct person until resigning two days after filing as Democrat
Based on that summary, I assume you agree with me that they are NOT Democrats. In my opinion, filing to run as a candidate for a political party where you do not overlap at all on party platform positions is completely disrespectful to voters. It is an honor and a privilege to be a candidate for political office. Meanwhile, Whitaker and Winters just spit in the voters’ faces instead.
Why are these MAGAs filing as Democrats?
In the Montana Free Press article, Rae Grulkowski’s loss to Eric Hinebauch in the 2024 Republican primary for Cascade County commissioner was brought up.
And foreshadowing, that loss is highly relevant to the rest of this post.
Grulkowski blamed her loss on Democrats voting in the Republican primary. You can read that twice. Grulkowski is pissed, and I suspect her little cabal of MAGA weirdos is behind the push for Republicans to file as Democrats in Cascade County. She is still mad she lost, and she blames Democrats rather than having some self-reflection. PEOPLE DIDN’T VOTE FOR YOU RAE, BECAUSE YOU WERE BAD AT YOUR JOB.
My conclusion is that Whitaker and Winters filed to force Democratic primaries and ensure that Democrats don’t crossover vote in the Republican primary. Yep. It’s worth lying to the voters to get their way! Sounds about MAGA.
Why do I bring up Steven Vinnedge and Kathryn Hansen? More MAGA idiocy
Both Steven Vinnedge and Kathryn Hansen filed to be Democratic precinct people in Cascade County. Not satisfied with destroying their own party, the MAGA wing is trying to become voting members of the local Democratic Party. And yes, like Winters and Whitakers, it’s not hard to find the crazy on Vinnedge and Hansen. They are not Democrats.
Here are some lowlights from Steven Vinnedge’s public Facebook posts:
Yeah…Steven Vinnedge is not a Democrat.
What about Kathryn Hansen?
Like the others, it is well known that Hansen is a Republican. She spoke openly against the Great Falls Library Board recommendations at an October 2023 Great Falls City Commission meeting and asked them to appoint anti-library levy applicant Noelle Johnson. ::Shocker::, at the same meeting, Steven Vinnedge was there also dissing the library board. Almost like they align politically! As I pointed out above, both Kathryn Hansen and Steven Vinnedge signed that bananapants all return to paper ballots, all hand counting petition.
There you have it folks
MAGA is going through an extinction burst, and hopefully we can work around them until they finish destroying themselves. Meanwhile, the local Democratic Party is seriously kicking some ass with candidate recruitment and strengthening of their party.
We are writing about the recent news coverage of your potential run for the U.S. Senate. If you are seriously considering such a run, we urge you to run as a Democrat rather than as an Independent.
Those urging you to run as an independent because a Democrat “can’t win” are wrong. Their opinion is apparently based on polling and Jon Tester’s recent loss to Tim Sheehy. Some “professional political people” in Montana are advocating that organizations and institutions forming the traditional Democratic base support moderate Republicans and Independents rather than Democrats out of desperation. They are mistaken. We wrote a blog post on the past performance of Independent candidates in Montana. We urge you to read it: https://wtf406.com/2026/01/handing-steve-daines-the-next-election/
Before going further, we would like to point out that the public discussion of this Independent scheme is all about strategy and game playing. Politics, at its best, is about the issues and policy initiatives to address those issues. At its worst, politics is anything-goes cynical game playing. . . and lots and lots of special interest money. Obviously, this Independent strategy falls into the second category.
In addition to the historical evidence in our post, we urge you to consider a couple other points.
First, the idea that your race as an Independent will avoid the tarnished brand of Democrats is naive. Before you have even announced, the Republicans are out with an attack ad: https://www.montanarightnow.com/montana/political-group-releases-ad-targeting-departing-um-president-seth-bodnar/article_309940b3-3514-463e-bbb9-ffd45149f759.html. The chair of the Missoula Republican Central Committee has an editorial circulating in papers around the state calling you “Sneaky Seth” among other things. Whether you run as an Independent or a Democrat, you will be smeared by the Republican attack machine. Steve Daines will be extremely well funded and will run a dirty campaign.
Second, Democratic base voters are a significant segment of the population you would have if you prevail in the primary. Instead of looking at polling, which is increasingly unreliable, we encourage you to look at actual election results in Montana. The 2024 election in the Eastern Congressional District illustrates the value of Democratic base voters. The Democratic candidate in that race was John Driscoll. Despite the fact that Driscoll ran virtually no campaign, he garnered 33.9 percent of the vote simply because he had a “D” behind his name on the ballot. That percentage would be even higher in the Western District. In the Eastern District race in 2022, Independent candidate Gary Buchanan captured only 22 percent of the vote.
As the deadline for filing approaches, we hope you will carefully consider which party more closely aligns with your beliefs on issues and realize that you have very little chance of prevailing as an Independent in Montana.
[For transparency, I am the previous chair and current vice chair of the Cascade County Democrats. The opinions presented here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Cascade County Democrats. – Helena Lovick]
Last week a message supposedly written by former U.S. Senator Jon Tester leaked. (Tester hasn’t confirmed or denied the text message…pretty clear it’s real.) Many of Tester’s long-time supporters, including myself, are pissed about its content and here’s why.
What was the message about?
The leaked message covered Tester’s thoughts on the Democratic Party, his experience running for office, and what he thinks of the probable run by University of Montana President Seth Bodnar for U.S. Senate (Bodnar resigned late last week).
Former UM President Seth Bodnar
The Good
Before I go off about my personal thoughts about Tester’s views, I’ll first give him some credit. I’ll admit that as a three-term U.S. Senator Tester knows a hell of a lot more than me about what it takes to run for the U.S. Senate and win. In Tester’s opinion, to win the candidate “has to run a near flawless race that is well funded and well staffed.” He also acknowledged that we need a Senator to “fight to stop all the insanity that is going on in our dictatorship today, not rubber stamp it.” Agreed, we certainly need a fighter, not someone ready to bow down to a dictatorship.
The Bad
In the message, Tester praised Bodnar but agreed with consultant Jim Messina that Bodnar can’t win as a Democrat. Tester also appears to support a Bodnar run as an independent, because “a generic independent does about a 8 point swing [against incumbent Daines]” in comparison to a generic Democrat. Before we get into the ugly content of Tester’s message, this already was raising some red flags for the Democratic base. If you abandon our party to win, what does that do to candidates that aren’t afraid to run as a Democrat? IT TAKES VOTES AWAY FROM THE DEMOCRAT. And then neither the Independent nor the Democrat win. Sounds pretty great if you are a Republican.
We saw this exact scenario play out in 2022. In that election, Independent Gary Buchanan threw his hat in the ring for the Montana Eastern U.S. House race. That move took votes away from the Democratic candidate Penny Ronning, but not the Republican Matt Rosendale. And for what?? Both Ronning and Buchanan lost and let Matt Rosendale (gag) easily carry the race with 56.5% of the vote. I would not encourage a left-leaning candidate to run as an independent in a Senate race that already has a Democratic candidate. In Montana, in our current political climate, you are dooming them both. And honestly, the consultant class doesn’t care, because they will make money if Bodnar runs as an Independent, no matter the outcome of the election.
The Ugly
Ok, I have some ick thinking of a Democrat encouraging an Independent to run over another Democrat, but what was ugly about Tester’s message?
Throughout his message, Tester made numerous jabs at Democrats:
“…every race I ran … was about distancing myself from the Democratic Party.”
“During my last two races the democratic Party was poison in my attempts to get re-elected.”
“[the Democratic party] was a hell of an anvil.”
[about Reilly Neill currently running for U.S. Senate against Daines] “We can watch her talk about trans rights, democracy and bathrooms…BTW she will lose by 25, but she is a Democrat.”
Political Parties Can Change
First, a political party isn’t static or an unchangeable institution. THE PARTY IS THE PEOPLE. If you agree with most of a party’s political positions, but don’t like something about it… then work to change it! Tester has been entrenched in the Democratic Party of Montana for over three decades. If it’s been such an anvil, where was the effort to make it better? A U.S. Senator has a huge impact on their home state’s political positions. Use that power to build a bench, to strengthen the party, speak up on party positions! I know, I know, it’s hard. But that’s what it takes if you want to make a difference.
Democrat Reilly Neill deserves respect for her efforts
Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Reilly Neill
Secondly, what a thing to say about Senate Candidate Reilly Neill. She is a Democratic candidate speaking up in alignment with the Democratic Party’s platform and political positions. Good Democrats DO stand with LGBTQ rights, especially when they are under attack like now. We DO speak up about the rising dictatorship in our country that is threatening our democracy. What else can an ethical candidate do? Appeal to a non-existent middle to try to eke out an 8 point swing to win? An 8 point swing that will never materialize because you will be splitting the vote between an Independent and a Democrat?
Let’s beat Daines by not splitting our vote. Let’s be strategic and vote for the person unafraid to share their positions on issues, willing to take the heat. That’s a fighter. That’s the kind of person we need to elect. And that is the Democrat who wins the primary in June.
Former legislator Steven Galloway has filed to run in senate district 11 in Cascade County. This video of Galloway at some Trump event says it all. If this offends you, consider running yourself. The deadline for filing is March 4th.
Some political consultant types are working to hand the next election to Steve Daines. We all know that beating Steve Daines in the next election will be tough, but if there was ever an election cycle where Democrats had a chance of beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a red state, it is the 2026 election.
Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior combined with his callous disregard for the welfare of the country may well be wearing thin, even with his normally staunch supporters in the Republican Party. He is mired in a sex scandal, his economic program is driving up prices, he has unleashed masked thugs on the American public, and he has turned to foreign military actions in Venezuela, which angers some in his “America First” base.
Trump’s poll numbers are dropping. Recently Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned him. Seventeen Republican members of the U.S. House abandoned him to vote to extend the ACA subsidies. Five Republican Senators voted against him in passing the War Powers Act Resolution. But the Montana delegation, and particularly Steve Daines, are “all in” with Trump. . . .and Daines is on the ballot in 2026. Trump could prove to be a political liability.
Enter the consultant class in Montana. Tired of losing elections they have concluded that the problem is the Democratic “brand.” Of course it could be that consultants and pollsters don’t know what they are doing and Democrats are in the mess they are in because they have been listening to consultants for far too long. No doubt they have polling that shows a Democrat just can’t win. Their solution is simple. Dump the Democrats and run for the middle of the road as “independents.” They do all of that while pointing fingers at the “extremists” in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they are finding support among frustrated groups and individuals who blame electoral losses on the Democratic Party.
This is not a new idea. The problem is, it doesn’t work. In 2022 the “ideal” independent candidate surfaced in the Eastern District Congressional race for investment advisor, Gary Buchanan of Billings. Buchanan had worked in Republican (Racicot) and Democratic (Schwinden) administrations on economic development. He was a well established presence in the business community and was known for his moderate positions on issues. In the election he was running against a relatively unknown Democrat named Penny Ronning and the controversial Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent, Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale raised a little over $2 million, Buchanan raised about $500,000 and Ronning raised around $175,000. In the final vote count, Rosendale won with 57% of the vote. Buchanan only garnered 22% of the vote, barely beating Democrat Ronning’s total of 20%, despite having more than twice as much money.
Another telling independent campaign failure in Montana occurred during the 2024 election for Public Service Commission District #4 in the northwest corner of the state. In that race Republican incumbent, Jennifer Fielder, faced a challenge from independent candidate, Elena Evans. Evans raised around $50,000. In addition an “independent committee”, the Montana Ratepayers Association, reported spending nearly $500,000 for the race to support Evans and defeat Fielder. Fielder raised around $12,000. Despite the fact that the independent outspent the Republican and an unprecedented amount of money was spent by a dark money group supporting her, Evans received only 47% of the vote.
Two ballot measures which were predicated on taking advantage of people’s frustration with the two party system and implementing changes to our election process in the 2024 election – CI-126 and CI-127 (inaccurately referred to as the open primary initiatives) – failed by 51.1% and 60.4% respectively. This despite the fact that the campaign supporting them was well organized and well funded and there was no organized opposition.
The consulting group managing the ballot measures was a group called Fireweed. PSC candidate, Elena Evans, paid them at least $21,000 of the total she raised for her campaign. And rumor has it that Fireweed and others are approaching the Democratic Party about rule changes that would facilitate the party election of independent candidates.
Of course most people say they are fed up with the two party system. Polling routinely shows relatively large numbers of people who self identify as independents. But that does not show up clearly in voting trends. If split ticket voting is any indication of party loyalty, or lack of it, it appears that Montana voters are becoming more partisan. A recent analysis of split ticket voting done by the Montana Free Press relied on data from one researcher who said that some split ticket rates dropped from 20% in 2018 to 8% last year. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/
Having an independent candidate, particularly a strong independent candidate as envisioned by the proponents of this idea, is dumping cold water on all down ticket Democrats on the ballot. Traditionally, Democrats in local, legislative and state-wide offices have benefitted from the campaigns at the top of the ticket. . .the so-called “coattail effect.” An independent at the top of the ticket will be punching down every time he is asked, “Why didn’t you run as a Democrat?” One can only hope that the Democrats running for other offices are paying careful attention to this effort.
So, now the rumor getting all the buzz in Helena hallways is that there is a group, paid political consultants (ie Fireweed) and others, promoting a run by University of Montana President Seth Bodner as an independent against Daines. Doing so would virtually hand this election to Steve Daines. The best they could achieve is to split the anti-Daines vote between the Democrat and the Independent. In the process they further weaken the Montana Democratic Party. It’s hard to understand how all of these so-called smartest people in the room come up with these harebrained schemes.
The 2025 municipal election season is over so how did Great Falls do? First the new law passed by Montana Republicans in 2025 to require the addition of the voter’s birth year on the ballots with their signature led to a huge number of ballots being rejected.
In the 2023 Great Falls Municipal Election, 204 ballots were rejected.
Now we know that the new Birth Year Ballot law is working as intended. Spreading confusion, discouraging voters, and damaging trust in the electoral process. On top of that, it interferes with the work of our elections officials and reduces voter privacy. What a delight! Thanks so much Montana GOP* for your continued efforts to undermine elections! *(The House Bill 719 passed on a party line vote with no Democrats supporting it during the 2025 Montana Legislature).
How about the Election Results Themselves?
Here there are:
MAYOR
Cory Reeves: 11,650 (71.0%)
Jasmine Taylor: 4,416 (26.91%)
Write-In: 57
CITY COMMISSION
Pete Anderson: 5,249 (16.0%)
Joe McKenney: 8,756 (26.7%)
Matt Pipinich: 5,614 (17.1%)
Casey Schreiner: 8,578 (26.1%)
Write-In: 111
FIREWORKS
Yes (limit): 8,781 (53.5%)
No (do not limit): 7,294 (44.4%)
Well to be honest, the results weren’t what I was hoping for. But it could have been worse!
The Good News
We did not elect Pete Anderson to the City Commission after he proposed a homeless island where homeless people would be used as revenue-generating “tourist attraction” makinginternational headlines. The bar is in the ground and we cleared it! Let’s continue to keep out the crazies. And newly elected commissioner, Casey Schreiner, is a solid addition to the Great Falls City Commission.
The Meh News
Joe McKenney and Cory Reeves were both incumbents so their re-elections look like more of the same. A commission that seems to lack vision for fiscal responsibility with the growing deficit of the local aquatic center, a 27% utility rate hike, refusal to issue proclamations on LGBTQ rights and breast feeding, yanking of funding from our library after voters passed a levy trying to increase library funding and so much more. It’s a slow motion trainwreck as the current commission runs our city into the ground.
Thank you Jasmine, Matt, and Casey
Thankfully Jasmine Taylor challenged Cory Reeves and didn’t let him run unopposed. Her candidacy helped elevate the issues our city faces such as the Calumet tax protest situation, lack of support for the public library, and so forth. Thank you Jasmine Taylor, Matt Pipinich, and Casey Schreiner for offering a different vision for our city. A city of growth and embrace of diversity. We sure deserve better than this wishy-washy city commission untethered to moral ground as they make too many decisions based on their biases and supporters’ opinions. How about doing the right thing, not the easy thing? Maybe explain to citizens why a move is necessary even if it goes against your kneejerk surface values? What a world that would be…where politicians had a backbone and actually walked the walk of their values.
What’s Next?
Should progressives give up all hope and accept that the right-wing takeover of our town is insurmountable? Um, HELL NO. Change is in the wind. We all saw it on Election night. Although things didn’t go left in Great Falls, they RAN left in national news. Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, what an impressive rejection of the national politics led by trumple-thin-skin. It takes effort to move the pendulum left, and that means persistence. Let’s Keep Going.
