by Ken Toole | Sep 12, 2026 | Republicans, Taxes, Taxpayers
Do You Make Less Than $91,000 a Year?
With great fanfare, Governor Gianforte announced a “public engagement campaign” to promote a “flat income tax” in Montana. The idea is simple: Republicans want to eliminate our current multi-tiered income tax and replace it with one 4.7% rate for everyone, regardless of their income.
The result of this proposal is a big income-tax break for wealthy taxpayers and a big, fat nothing for you if you make less than $91,000 per year. Same old trickle-down BS.
Understanding the Relative Value of a Dollar
The concept of a flat tax sounds good. Everyone ends up paying the same rate regardless of their income. Sounds fair, right?
It’s not.
Economists use the term “marginal utility” to explain the fact that one dollar is worth more or less to individuals depending on their income. Put bluntly, it refers to the fact that very wealthy people do not value a dollar the same way a person farther down the income scale does.
Business Insider actually crunched the numbers and found that the value of one dollar for an average American equates to $1,355 for the average billionaire.
Most people understand that wealthy people often don’t count their pennies like the rest of us. Of course not. They don’t have to worry about it.
Think about the last time you made a major purchase. Most of us start by deciding what we can afford. Imagine how different it would be if you didn’t have to worry about the price.
Outside Groups to Run the Montana “Public Engagement Campaign” for a Flat Tax
Standing next to Governor Gianforte at the press event announcing the campaign to promote the flat tax were Jack Baum from the D.C.-based group Americans for Tax Reform and Chris Cargill, president of the Idaho-based group Mountain States Policy Center. Both groups are part of a national network of right-wing organizations promoting a menu of “economic reforms.”
Americans for Tax Reform was founded by Grover Norquist, who is currently president of the group. Norquist is probably best known for a comment he made in 2001. He told a reporter, “I don’t want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub.”
Mountain States Policy Center is based in Idaho. It is a member of a national group called the State Policy Network (SPN). A report by the Center for Media and Democracy found that the group had a budget of $152 million in 2022.
The State Policy Network claims to be nonpartisan and independent. But it is funded by the Koch brothers and other right-wing funders. The group is also a major driver of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), which develops model legislation to implement right-wing policies and disseminates them to state legislators and lobbyists.
(See “EXPOSED: The State Policy Network — The Powerful Right-Wing Network Helping to Hijack State Politics and Government”)
The Mountain States Policy Center appears occasionally on Montana editorial pages, promoting its version of free-market economics and public policy.
Former Montana Law School professor Rob Natelson is listed as one of the organization’s “research fellows.” He authored a report recommending that Montana hold a constitutional convention because he believes there are flaws in our current constitution.
Natelson has a long and controversial history in Montana. He left the University of Montana Law School under a cloud of controversy. He was unpopular with his colleagues, who voted to deny him emeritus status. He also sued the law school, alleging that he had been discriminated against because of his conservative views.
In 1996, Natelson ran for governor against Marc Racicot in the Republican primary. He received less than 25% of the vote. In 2000, he ran again and was defeated by Judy Martz in the Republican primary.
Flat Tax Likely to Be Center Stage in the Next Legislature
The Gianforte administration and its out-of-state hired guns are clearly setting the stage for the next legislature.
If you make less than $91,000 a year, the proposal offers you nothing but the continued shoveling of money into the pockets of the people at the top of the income ladder.
by Ken Toole | Aug 29, 2026 | Money, Politics, Vote
If you are a voter in Montana’s Eastern Congressional District, you may have noticed that you are seeing those glossy, oversized postcards candidates send out this time of year. Some of those are from Troy Downing. He is currently running for re-election to Montana’s Eastern Congressional District seat.
You may have also seen brief video ads from Troy Downing while watching your favorite programs. You may not have noticed that you are helping to pay for those ads.
It’s called “franking.” It allows members of Congress to send communications to their constituents, paid for by taxpayers. The program is funded through each congressional office’s Member’s Representational Allowance. The amount varies, but generally runs between $1.8 and $2 million.
The allowance breaks down into three categories: personnel and staffing, official office expenses, and official mail expenses. Since 2023, Downing’s allowance has averaged $1,928,107.
It is no secret that incumbents often increase their use of franked mail during campaign season. And based on our mailboxes and video screens, Downing appears to be taking full advantage of this federal largesse.
Of course, this is in addition to Downing’s campaign fundraising and the personal money he has “loaned” to his campaign. Downing is a very wealthy man.
Federal Election Commission reports filed through June 30, 2026, show that Downing has received total campaign receipts of a little over $2 million. He has spent about $1.5 million so far. In addition, he has loaned his campaign committee a little over $2 million.
For comparison, retired cardiologist Michael Eisenhauer who is running as an independent has received just under $300,000, but only about $50,000 came from contributors. The rest was a loan of approximately $250,000 from himself.
Brian Miller, the Democrat in the race, is running an aggressive, issue-based campaign focused heavily on concerns about data centers. He has raised just under $20,000, with no personal loans.
The golden rule in politics is: “The one who has the money makes the rules.”
Clearly, Troy Downing has the money in this race. Too bad he also has his hands in taxpayers’ pockets to help pay for his campaign.
Our democracy has been stolen by big money. We desperately need campaign finance reform.
Vote for Initiative 194 — The Montana Plan.
by Ken Toole | Aug 18, 2026 | Elections, Taxes
County Commissioner Joe Briggs is making the rounds with a menu of potential cuts aimed at reducing local property taxes. Briggs recently distributed the information shown in the graphics above and below at a local Pachyderm Club meeting.
Most of us would probably like to see our property taxes reduced. Most of us also want to retain at least some of the services Briggs has identified as potential cuts. The truth is that local governments have been put between a rock and a hard place by restrictions imposed by the legislature. Rigid limits on local-government funding have forced cuts to many local services—regardless of how necessary or popular those services are in the community.
On top of that, local business-development and recruitment efforts have turned into a legalized Ponzi scheme, providing tax breaks and deferrals to large corporations that often ignore the needs of the communities where they operate. Calumet is a master of this game. (See our previous post: https://wtf406.com/2025/05/how-large-industrial-corporations-like-calumet-are-screwing-you/ )
Janicki Industries is another recent example. The Electric reports that, under state law, Janicki’s property will be taxed at 50 percent of its taxable value for the first five years. Each year thereafter, the percentage will increase by equal increments until the property reaches its full taxable value in the tenth year.
Janicki also wants phased approval, allowing each phase to receive a separate tax-abatement period. Local county commissioners chose to give Janicki the minimum tax abatement allowed under state law: 80 percent. You can thank local legislator Steve Fitzpatrick for this particular gift to large corporations. See our post on Fitzpatrick’s legislation: (https://wtf406.com/2025/04/calumets-got-lawyers-and-politicians/ )
This situation is a direct result of Republican trickle-down economic theory. The idea is that reducing taxes frees up capital for businesses to expand. That expansion creates economic activity, which increases the tax base and helps pay for public services and amenities.
It sounds nice, but reality doesn’t work that way. Businesses have stronger incentives to increase returns for investors. They do that by increasing profit margins—often through higher prices, cutting expenses, such as employee benefits and wages, and shifting costs onto others in the community by failing to clean up their messes. They also use the political process to advance all of those goals.
And that leaves us with Joe’s chart of the budget and list of possible cuts.
In a place where the majority of officials are Republicans who believe the trickle down mythology, public services take a back seat to attracting big businesses. So Joe Brigg’s Wheel of Fortune offers nothing but cuts to services which erode the quality of life in Great Falls. But in fairness to Joe, there is not much he can do about it because the legislation passed by Steve Fitzpatrick and other corporate shills in the legislature tie his hands with state law.
by Ken Toole | Jul 24, 2026 | Independent, Politics
Just when you thought Montana’s U.S. Senate race was about as strange as it could get, we find out Seth Bodnar is now working with former West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. Manchin is best known as a hostage-taker and dealmaker during his years in the U.S. Senate. Over the years, he angered many in the Senate by holding up legislation and cutting deals to get what he wanted. Among other things, he faced scrutiny over his financial ties to the coal industry. Manchin owned a coal brokerage business that paid his blind trust $500,000 per year while he was serving in the Senate. He resigned from the Democratic Party and became an independent shortly before leaving the Senate in 2024.
CNN is reporting that Manchin is forming a group to promote independent candidates across the country. The new group, the Independent Leadership Council, held its first meeting on July 23 in West Virginia. Manchin says he will head the group along with his daughter. Seth Bodnar attended, along with only two other independent candidates: Kevin Kiley, a former Republican now running as an independent in California, and Iowa congressional candidate Michael Bridgford.
Manchin’s daughter, Heather, a former pharmaceutical executive, will be leading the effort alongside her father. In 2023, she founded a group called Americans Together, which has also been promoting independent campaigns. Also in attendance at the meeting with Bodnar was Adam Brandon, a former Tea Party leader and president of FreedomWorks, a conservative political organization that closed in 2024. Another person attending was Seth Cohen, former Chief Impact Officer at Forbes Media and now working for the Independent Center.
As a clearer picture of Bodnar emerges, there is plenty to be concerned about. Taking his cues from someone like Joe Manchin is definitely a warning sign.
by Ken Toole | Jun 28, 2026 | Elections
“There’s Nothing in the Middle of the Road but Yellow Stripes and Dead Armadillos.”
Jim Hightower, Progressive Texas Politician and Commentator
Full disclosure: I served in the Montana Senate with Jon Tester. I worked for Nancy Keenan when she was Superintendent of Public Instruction. I served as the Vice Chair and Chair of the Lewis and Clark Central Committee. I was elected as the Western District Chair’s Representative on the State Democratic Party Executive Board. I served as a senate representative on the Montana Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. I was elected twice to the Montana Senate and once to the Montana Public Service Commission. I have founded, managed and volunteered for progressive organizations in Montana for my entire career. I have been an active Democrat despite having a lot frustration with the party because I recognize the need for organizations which provide structure, transparency and democratic accountability in our political process.
Great Falls, MT
Bodnar’s Stable of Politician Endorsements
The Bodnar campaign is moving into high gear. His pockets are filled with cash. Much of it coming from Washington, DC elites and lobbyists. He is now establishing his electoral credibility by announcing a stable of high profile Montana politicians, mostly Democrats. Most of these endorsers argue that these are desperate political times. They say the “Democratic brand” is so tarnished a Democrat can’t win state-wide office.
Ironically, if the finger of blame belongs anywhere for the current dysfunction in our political system and the Montana Democratic Party in particular, these folks deserve much of the blame. Over the years they have consistently emphasized reaching out to the “middle-of-the-road” voters while marginalizing the traditional progressive base in the Democratic Party.
Bodnar’s recent endorsements include:
Jon Tester- 18 years representing Montana in the US Senate. He lost 2024 election despite spending more money than Tim Sheehy, (Tester $79 mm, Sheehy $21mm, PAC spending $115mm roughly split evenly) The Montana Free Press described him this way “Tester positions himself as a moderate willing to work with or oppose either Trump or Biden depending on the issue,”
Max Baucus- 35 years representing Montana in the US Senate. His Wikipedia page summarized him this way, “he was known for straddling party lines and frequently bucking his own party on taxes, health care, the environment, and gun control. Baucus was the primary author of our current health care system (along with his former Chief of Staff, Jim Messina, who was also an advisor to Tester’s 2006 campaign for Senate and is now encouraging Bodnar’s independent run).
For more details on Baucus follow this link: https://sunlightfoundation.com/2009/06/22/the-max-baucus-health-care-lobbyist-complex/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Nancy Keenan- four years as the Executive Director of the Montana Democratic Party ending in 2019. Six years serving in the Montana House of Representatives representing Anaconda ending in 1989. She subsequently served three terms as The Superintendent of Public Instruction until 2001.
Dorothy Bradley- Served a total eight terms in the Montana House of Representatives. She ran against Pat Williams in the Democratic Primary for Congress. She lost. She ran for Governor in 1992. She was defeated in the general election by Marc Racicot. She also served on the board of NorthWestern Energy from 2009 to 2017. The NWE 2016 Proxy Statement says she received $211,840 in stock and cash compensation. The same document shows that she held $1,099,648 in stock and “deferred stock units”
Mary Sexton- Served as a Teton County Commissioner from 1999 to 2004. She ran for PSC in 2000 losing to Tom Schneider in the primary. She also ran as John Vincent’s running mate in 2004 gubernatorial race. She and Vincent were defeated by Brian Schweitzer and John Bohlinger (a Republican, ahem). She was head of the Montana Department of Natural Resources from 2006 to 2013. She served as Chair of the Montana Democratic Party from 2016 to 2018.
Bodnar also has been endorsed by former Governor, Marc Racicot. Perhaps his greatest “accomplishment” was shepherding electric deregulation through the Montana legislature. We’re not going through his long, soiled career as a republican hack/lobbyist during the Bush 2 administration. Take a look for yourself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Racicot.
These folks, and others like them, have been calling the shots in the Montana Democratic Party for years. And virtually every time they or their chosen candidates have lost with their middle of the road strategies and rhetoric they point immediately at progressives and place the blame on us. Too green, too gay, too anti-business, too Missoula, and so it goes. It has become the common wisdom among party elites and the consultant class. . . .and it is bullshit.
Consider the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary in Montana
The progressive candidate was Bernie Sanders, the insiders’ choice was Hillary Clinton. Much to the surprise of establishment Democrats, Bernie Sanders won the popular vote in the primary with 51.56% of the vote. He won in the urban centers you might predict (Missoula, Bozeman, Lewis and Clark). He also won many more rural counties than Clinton. So much for saying rural people don’t like progressive candidates.
Based on the popular vote, Sanders was awarded 11 delegates to go to the National Democratic Convention, Clinton was awarded 10. But Montana had six “unpledged superdelegates” who also had votes at the convention five of those voted for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she lost the popular vote . Three were Superdelegates because they were members of the Democratic National Committee, Jacquie Helt and Jim Larson (both Montana labor leaders) and Jorge Quintana, who served as chief legal counsel for Democratic Secretary of State, Linda McCulloch. The other superdelegates who voted for Clinton were Senator Jon Tester and Governor Steve Bullock. The lone superdelegate who supported Sanders was Jean Lemire Dahman a rancher from eastern Montana.
In the end, after a bit of a kerfuffle in the Montana delegation on the floor of the convention, Clinton was awarded 15 delegates and Sanders was awarded 12. Of course the Montana delegate count has little effect on the Presidential nomination. But this episode pretty clearly demonstrates who controls the Democratic party in the state and it isn’t the progressive wing.
“Wave” Elections Happen
The 2010 election was the first mid-term election of the Obama Administration. A red wave swept the country. Luckily there was only one state-wide race on the ballot in Montana. Republican Denny Rehberg won it with 60% of the vote. Republicans flipped 18 seats in the Montana House and took control of the senate with a six vote majority. Republicans also gained two seats on the PSC. We are dealing with the results of the 2010 election to this day. All the money in the world, all of the sophisticated polling and strategic maneuvering in the world are simply window dressing in an election like this.
Now, along comes the 2026 election. It is the first mid-term election of Trump’s second term. We are engaged in a war he started in the Middle East. Inflation is steadily increasing, and his economic policies have wreaked havoc on numerous sectors of the economy. Assuming Trump doesn’t figure out a way to cancel or steal the election, it has the potential to be a blue wave election.
A Missed Opportunity to Unify Montana Democrats
Brian Schweitzer and others encouraged Bodnar to run as a Democrat (WTF406 among them https://wtf406.com/2026/02/open-letter-to-seth-bodnar/). But apparently others like consultant Jim Messina, Jon Tester and the endorsers listed in this post are convinced a Democrat can’t win in Montana (despite the fact that all of them have been elected in Montana as Democrats in the past).
Of course the argument has been that these are unique times and Trump and MAGA pose an existential threat to our democracy. But they have gone a step further in discouraging Bodnar from filing as a Democrat. It is hard to know what evidence they rely on other than some undisclosed polling and their years of experience. They are not relying on the history of success of independent candidates on the Montana ballot. The evidence there is not encouraging. (https://wtf406.com/2026/01/handing-steve-daines-the-next-election/).
By filing as an independent Bodnar forgoes the Democratic base vote. The promoters of his independent candidacy have also been promoting the idea that the winner of the Democratic primary would withdraw leaving a mano-a-mano contest between the Republican Kurt Alme and Bodnar. (See our previous post https://wtf406.com/2026/06/seth-bodnar-and-the-nebraska-plan/) Thus far the Democratic candidate, Alani Bankhead, isn’t going along with this weird idea.
But it is clear that Bodnar’s decision is dividing Democrats. So far, disgruntled Republicans are not flocking to his campaign. We can’t really say what percentage of voters are independent. But, we know that regularly partisan voters often identify themselves as independents when asked about their party affiliation by pollsters. A more accurate method than polling is to look at voters who voted for candidates from both parties on the same ballot, so called “ticket splitters” in Montana elections. According to one estimate ticket splitting in Montana has declined from 20% in 2016 to 8% in 2024. (https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/). Bad news for Bodnar.
Truth is nobody knows . . .
It is true that we are in uncharted waters in this election cycle. The authoritarian take over of our government and institutions is well underway. It is also true that we have never seen this amount of money in politics and the sleazy win-at-any-cost consultant crowd it has attracted. Reilly Neill didn’t appear to be able to raise the kind of money and support needed for a US Senate race despite her hard work. Alani Bankhead is really an unknown commodity in Montana politics. It may be true that Seth Bodnar is the strongest of the three to take on Kurt Alme.
But it is also true that his independent candidacy is damaging the Democratic Party and alienating a lot of loyal and consistent Democratic volunteers and voters. It is also damaging to Democrats in down ticket races.
And once you strip it all down, Bodnar’s choice to run as an independent is driven by money, speculative polling and analysis by old office holders and consultants. It is the opposite of the kind of grass roots organizing and support most people say they want to see in our politics.
Bodnar could have run as a Democrat but chose not to. Ironically, If Kurt Alme wins this election, the same old crowd will point their fingers and blame the progressives who didn’t jump on board with Bodnar.
