In case you haven’t already heard the conspiracy theory floating around about the games supposedly being played in Montana’s U.S. Senate race on the Democratic ticket, let us run it down for you.
Step 1 — Bodnar files to run as an independent.
Step 2 — The winner of the Democratic primary, Alani Bankhead, resigns.
Step 3 — The State Central Committee of the Montana Democratic Party refuses to meet its statutory obligation to appoint a replacement for Bankhead.
Step 4 — With no Democrat on the general election ballot, Bodnar gets the votes of virtually all Democrats and enough swing voters to defeat the Republican candidate, Kurt Alme.
Though the whole thing sounds like the plot of a bad political thriller, it has obviously gained traction with Washington, D.C. power brokers and more than a few ordinary Montana Democrats who are desperate for an electoral victory.
This plan falls apart if any of the steps cannot be accomplished. The Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead, has been consistent and vocal that she has no intention of resigning. Even if she did resign—which seems pretty far‑fetched—the next step would require the Democratic Party to refuse to fill the position. This is a statutory requirement, not an “option.” There is little doubt that the failure of the State Democratic Party to act promptly to fill the vacancy would lead to litigation.
The promoters of this far‑fetched plan point to the state of Nebraska, where Steps 1, 2, and most of 3 have already been accomplished by U.S. Senate candidate Dan Osborn. The problem is that Nebraska is not Montana, and Seth Bodnar is not like Dan Osborn.
Nebraskan Dan Osborn vs. Seth Bodnar
Osborn is a bona fide working‑class populist. Born to a seamstress and a railroad laborer, he was raised in Nebraska. After high school he joined the Navy. He did not complete college; instead, he went to work in an industrial plant fixing machinery. While there, he became active in the union. In 2021 he led a 77‑day strike against the plant, forcing concessions from the corporation that owned it. He was subsequently fired. He ran for U.S. Senate in 2024 as an Independent* on a strong populist platform. There was no Democrat in the race. He lost by only 7 points, surprising pundits in this strongly Republican state.
Bodnar presents a very different profile. His parents were educators in Pennsylvania. He went to West Point—probably the most elite military school in the country (it requires a congressional or vice presidential recommendation to attend as do the Naval Academy and Air Force Academy)—and graduated first in his class. After West Point he became a Rhodes Scholar. He joined the military, was deployed several times, and served in the Iraq War. In 2011 he went to work for the General Electric Corporation and became a senior executive. In 2018 he became President of the University of Montana, where he served until resigning to run for Senate.
The contrast between these two candidates is not to disparage Bodnar’s impressive résumé. It is presented to point out that Bodnar is a very different candidate from Nebraska’s Dan Osborn.
Nebraska Politics Are Not Like Montana’s
Aside from the obvious geographic and economic differences between the two states, Nebraska also has a very different political culture. Nebraska has the only unicameral (one‑house) legislature in the country. Legislators—who are all called “Senator”—run without party affiliation in nonpartisan primaries. Until recent elections, Montana was known as a “purple” state with a relatively large number of ticket‑splitters. Nebraska has been reliably Republican for a much longer period of time.
Where the clandestine political intrigue now surrounding the Montana Democratic Party—and the conspiracy theory at the center of this post—reeks of smoke‑filled rooms and bowler derbies, the approach of the Nebraska Democratic Party has been open and honest in endorsing Osborn’s campaign. Below is a statement from a March 3, 2026 press release from the Nebraska Democratic Party:
“The Nebraska Democratic Party made a deliberate, principled decision not to field a candidate in the U.S. Senate race. We believe Dan Osborn – a veteran, a mechanic, a Nebraskan, and an independent voice – represents the best opportunity to defeat Pete Ricketts and deliver real results for working families.”
The Nebraska primary election was held on May 12, 2026. There were two Democrats on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate: Cindy Burbank and William Forbes. Forbes was widely regarded as a plant from incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pete Ricketts. Burbank was forthright about her intent to resign and leave the field open for Osborn to challenge Ricketts. She won the Democratic primary with almost 90% of the vote.
But that is not the end of the story. The Republican Secretary of State, Bob Evnan, had attempted to keep Burbank off the ballot, arguing that she intended to violate her oath of office. He was ordered to place her name on the ballot by the Nebraska Supreme Court. He has said he will seek guidance from Republican State Attorney General Mike Hilgers on whether he must accept Burbank’s resignation and remove her name from the general election ballot in November.
Where Things Stand Now
Alani Bankhead has been steadfast in her refusal to step aside for Seth Bodnar. She appears resolute in her commitment, and she does not appear to be someone who is easily pushed around. That said, she is likely to receive a lot of pressure from national political figures and politicos around Montana.
But if she resigns, this mess lands squarely in the lap of the State Democratic Party. If it fails to meet its legal obligation to replace her on the ballot, two new players will likely enter the game: Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and Attorney General Austin Knudsen… let that sink in.
*correction- the original post said Osborn ran as a Democrat in 2024. He ran as an Independent.
Fresh off his resounding defeat of famous “RINO hunter” Randy Pinocci with 68% of the Republican Primary vote in Senate District 12, George Nikolakakos is now setting his sights on Montana GOP Chairman, Art Wittich.
“What he has done is divided the party, created a war, and now we are basically in shambles, putting Humpty Dumpty back together again.” Nikolakakos said in an interview with The Daily Montanan. He went on to say that Wittich should resign.
Republican Primaries. . .A Shit Show
Nikolakakos’ comments come on the heels of the most contentious and expensive Republican legislative primaries in anyone’s memory. But, in fairness to poor old Art Whittick, his autocratic reign of the Montana Republican party is only the most recent battle in the war that has been raging between old style Republicans like Llew Jones, and Nikolakakos and the Spanish Inquisition style Republicans known as the Montana Freedom Caucus.
Wittick pointed out that many of the Republicans the state party targeted for consorting with Democrats during the last legislative session benefited from help in the Republican Primary from Democratic consultants. Nikolakakos and other republicans received support from Fireweed, a Missoula based consultant group staffed by former labor and Democratic Party employees with connections to deep pocket contributors.
Wittick Not Backing Down. Neither is George
Not one for backing down from a fight, Wittick said, “If anything, I’m going to accelerate this process of looking at legislators’ votes and making sure they account when they are voting to weaken Republican leadership, voting to weaken Republican policies, and voting to weaken the Republican party,”
Of course, Nikolakakos is not one for backing down either. “With my first speech on the Senate floor, I’m gonna call him (Wittich) out and remind him I do not work for him, that I work for the people of my district,” Nikolalakos concluded “The more people fought, the better they did,” Of course, fighting is a lot easier in local politics when you can put about $100,000 of your own money into your campaign. (see our post on local legislative races and money https://wtf406.com/2026/04/tired-of-money-in-politics-buckle-up-for-2026/ )
Thank you to the Daily Montanan for it’s reporting on this story
Claiton Gusler says he is a business man, a family man and a conservative. He lives in Billings. As you can see, he is “sponsoring” this billboard in Great Falls promoting Randy Pinocci in his run for Montana Senate. A billboard like this costs around $1300 for one month. It’s well over the contribution limit for an individual of $470.
Gusler can do this kind of thing because his support is considered and “independent expenditure” so long as it is not “coordinated” with Pinocci’s campaign. This is a hole in campaign finance law you can drive a truck through. Both sides are doing it and it is a large part of the reason voters are inundated with post cards, billboards and social media posts in every election cycle.
But getting back to Gusler, he has made 16 personal contributions to republican candidates in this election cycle, including giving individually to the following from the Cascade County area: Randy Pinocci, Tony Rosales, Zack Wirth, and Jeff Pattison (for PSC.) That does not include the money he may be sliding under the door through the “independent expenditure” loop hole. In addition, he has also sponsored a billboard in Billings for Nellie Nichol. She is a supporter of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus in the legislature.
But Gusler is more than just a conservative business man from Billings.
He is also on the Montana Sex and Violent Offender Registry. He was charged with assault with a weapon and burglary. He was sentenced in the spring of 2017 to 120 months in jail. His current status in conditional discharge from supervision.
Photo of Claiton Gusler
Photo of Randy Pinocci
We have no idea how he came to know Pinocci. But they have similar pictures on file.
Here’s a strange thing about the Republicans in the Montana Legislature — and it’s a hard thing to explain. Why is it that we have so many legislators who are close relatives? Maybe not surprisingly, they also break down across ideological lines. Also not surprisingly, they break down along the sides of the raging war within the Republican Party. There is only one pair of related Democrats, and they are cousins.
We are interested in your thoughts on why there are so many close Republican family members serving together in the legislature. There has to be some reason… not sure what it is. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
The Hard Right, Conspiracy Crowd
Here we see the Regier family of Kalispell. The current Senate President is Matt Regier. He was primarily responsible for the division of Senate Republicans when he tried to bury members he didn’t like with poor committee assignments. He failed and set off a conflict that dominated the entire legislative session. That conflict is still reverberating through Republican primaries across the state. That’s effective leadership for you.
His sister, Amy Regier, is currently in the House of Representatives. Their father, Keith Regier, served in the legislature (both House and Senate) until 2021.
Photo of Keith Regier
Photo of Matt Regier
Photo of Amy Regier
Next in line are Jedediah and Caleb Hinkle of Belgrade. Both are in the Montana House of Representatives. The Hinkle brothers are two of the most extreme right-wing representatives in the legislature. In the past, they have served as Chair and Vice Chair of the House Fish and Game Committee.
Photo of Caleb Hinkle and Jedediah Hinkle
We would be remiss if we didn’t mention Steven and Lola Galloway of Great Falls. Both were defeated in the 2024 election. Steven is currently running for the Montana Senate against Ed Buttrey in the Republican primary.
Photo of Steven and Lola Sheldon Galloway
How extreme is Steven Galloway? Check out this video in our previous post:
The More Traditional, Main Street Business Republicans
These married couples are closer to the political center of the already very conservative Montana Republican Party (which is currently dominated by the far right). Do not be confused by the people who call them “moderates.” They are anti–reproductive freedom, receive low scores from environmental groups, and oppose reasonable restrictions on gun ownership.
First, George and Melissa Nikolakakos of Great Falls. Both are current members of the Montana House of Representatives. George is running for a seat in the Senate. His opponent in the primary is Randy Pinocci. Pinocci is probably best known for numerous arrests and for falling asleep in Public Service Commission meetings before he lost his seat on the PSC due to term limits.
Here are links to selected previous WTF406.com posts about Nikolakakos and Pinocci:
Melissa Nikolakakos is currently being challenged by Tony Rosales in the Republican primary. Tony Rosales switched from being a Libertarian to running as a Republican in this election. Rosales ran in a nonpartisan election for school board in Great Falls in 2025.
Photo of George and Melissa Nikolakakos
Husband and wife Daniel and Katie Zolnikov both serve in the legislature representing Yellowstone County — Daniel in the Senate and Katie in the House. Daniel considers himself an expert on energy issues and is unopposed in this election. Katie has no primary opponent and will face Mike Eaton on the general election ballot. She also focuses on energy issues in the legislature.
Photo of Daniel and Katie Zolnikov
The Father and Son Who Take Care of Big Business
John Fitzpatrick currently represents House District 76 in Anaconda. He has a long history of representing large corporations in Montana and in the legislature. His résumé includes working for Pegasus Gold Mining (now bankrupt) and NorthWestern Energy, in addition to his own business activities. He is being challenged from the right by Trish Schreiber in the Republican primary. There is also an independent candidate, Shayne Morgan, who has filed in the race but has not yet gathered the signatures to be on the ballot.
Steve Fitzpatrick is John Fitzpatrick’s son. He currently serves in the Montana House representing House District 24 in Great Falls. He is an attorney for the silk-stocking law firm Browning, Kaleczyc, Berry & Hoven (BKBH), which also represents the Calumet Refinery in Great Falls. He does not have a primary challenger. In the general election, he will face Democrat Pam Carroll, a retired school district employee and current board member of Big Sky 55+, an advocacy organization for Montana seniors.
Below are selected previous WTF406.com posts about Steve Fitzpatrick:
We all should have received our ballots in the mail over the Mother’s day weekend. Most of us know there has been a lot of game playing in the primary this year. Perhaps the most bizarre is two Republican activists filed as Democrats. James Whitaker filed in Senate District 12 and Mark Winters in Senate District 11. Both men have consistently lied about their political affiliation. Even the chair of the local Republican Central Committee has said he does not believe they are Democrats.
And speaking of sleazy electoral moves, long term local Libertarian Party leaders have filed as Republicans. Tony Rosales filed in House District 20 and Kevin Leatherbarrow filed in House in House District 22. This pair has run for office repeatedly. Apparently they are tired of being Libertarian losers.
We should not forget that our current County Attorney, Josh Racki and Sheriff Jesse Slaughter switched from being Democrats to join the Republican Party. Obviously both of them were more committed to their own political careers than the platforms of either party. Neither of them has a democratic challenger in this election.
All of this maneuvering is a product of the current war in the local Republican Party between traditional Republicans like Ed Buttrey and George Nikakalakos and Republicans who wear tin hats to bed like Steven Galloway and Randy Pinocci.
This is a photo of a voter guide put out by the far-right contingent of the local Republican Party. If you know people who plan to vote in the Republican Primary you should give them this list (After recommending counseling and deprogramming). Let them know these are the extremists in politics everyone is complaining about.
