Some political consultant types are working to hand the next election to Steve Daines. We all know that beating Steve Daines in the next election will be tough, but if there was ever an election cycle where Democrats had a chance of beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a red state, it is the 2026 election.
Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior combined with his callous disregard for the welfare of the country may well be wearing thin, even with his normally staunch supporters in the Republican Party. He is mired in a sex scandal, his economic program is driving up prices, he has unleashed masked thugs on the American public, and he has turned to foreign military actions in Venezuela, which angers some in his “America First” base.
Trump’s poll numbers are dropping. Recently Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned him. Seventeen Republican members of the U.S. House abandoned him to vote to extend the ACA subsidies. Five Republican Senators voted against him in passing the War Powers Act Resolution. But the Montana delegation, and particularly Steve Daines, are “all in” with Trump. . . .and Daines is on the ballot in 2026. Trump could prove to be a political liability.
Enter the consultant class in Montana. Tired of losing elections they have concluded that the problem is the Democratic “brand.” Of course it could be that consultants and pollsters don’t know what they are doing and Democrats are in the mess they are in because they have been listening to consultants for far too long. No doubt they have polling that shows a Democrat just can’t win. Their solution is simple. Dump the Democrats and run for the middle of the road as “independents.” They do all of that while pointing fingers at the “extremists” in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they are finding support among frustrated groups and individuals who blame electoral losses on the Democratic Party.
This is not a new idea. The problem is, it doesn’t work. In 2022 the “ideal” independent candidate surfaced in the Eastern District Congressional race for investment advisor, Gary Buchanan of Billings. Buchanan had worked in Republican (Racicot) and Democratic (Schwinden) administrations on economic development. He was a well established presence in the business community and was known for his moderate positions on issues. In the election he was running against a relatively unknown Democrat named Penny Ronning and the controversial Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent, Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale raised a little over $2 million, Buchanan raised about $500,000 and Ronning raised around $175,000. In the final vote count, Rosendale won with 57% of the vote. Buchanan only garnered 22% of the vote, barely beating Democrat Ronning’s total of 20%, despite having more than twice as much money.
Another telling independent campaign failure in Montana occurred during the 2024 election for Public Service Commission District #4 in the northwest corner of the state. In that race Republican incumbent, Jennifer Fielder, faced a challenge from independent candidate, Elena Evans. Evans raised around $50,000. In addition an “independent committee”, the Montana Ratepayers Association, reported spending nearly $500,000 for the race to support Evans and defeat Fielder. Fielder raised around $12,000. Despite the fact that the independent outspent the Republican and an unprecedented amount of money was spent by a dark money group supporting her, Evans received only 47% of the vote.
Two ballot measures which were predicated on taking advantage of people’s frustration with the two party system and implementing changes to our election process in the 2024 election – CI-126 and CI-127 (inaccurately referred to as the open primary initiatives) – failed by 51.1% and 60.4% respectively. This despite the fact that the campaign supporting them was well organized and well funded and there was no organized opposition.
The consulting group managing the ballot measures was a group called Fireweed. PSC candidate, Elena Evans, paid them at least $21,000 of the total she raised for her campaign. And rumor has it that Fireweed and others are approaching the Democratic Party about rule changes that would facilitate the party election of independent candidates.
Of course most people say they are fed up with the two party system. Polling routinely shows relatively large numbers of people who self identify as independents. But that does not show up clearly in voting trends. If split ticket voting is any indication of party loyalty, or lack of it, it appears that Montana voters are becoming more partisan. A recent analysis of split ticket voting done by the Montana Free Press relied on data from one researcher who said that some split ticket rates dropped from 20% in 2018 to 8% last year. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/
Having an independent candidate, particularly a strong independent candidate as envisioned by the proponents of this idea, is dumping cold water on all down ticket Democrats on the ballot. Traditionally, Democrats in local, legislative and state-wide offices have benefitted from the campaigns at the top of the ticket. . .the so-called “coattail effect.” An independent at the top of the ticket will be punching down every time he is asked, “Why didn’t you run as a Democrat?” One can only hope that the Democrats running for other offices are paying careful attention to this effort.
So, now the rumor getting all the buzz in Helena hallways is that there is a group, paid political consultants (ie Fireweed) and others, promoting a run by University of Montana President Seth Bodner as an independent against Daines. Doing so would virtually hand this election to Steve Daines. The best they could achieve is to split the anti-Daines vote between the Democrat and the Independent. In the process they further weaken the Montana Democratic Party. It’s hard to understand how all of these so-called smartest people in the room come up with these harebrained schemes.
Donald Trump’s intervention (AKA invasion of Venezuela and kidnapping of Venezuelan president/dictator Maduro) is likely not going to turn out well. Historically, we have done the same or similar things many times and they never turn out well. Inevitably it leads to loss of lives, many of them American soldiers, and years of being mired down in expensive military actions which last for decades. The United States has a long history of failure with regime change, especially when we do it all on our own. This is a list of the countries where we have attempted regime change directly and indirectly and have failed since 1950:
Iran — 1953
Guatemala — 1954
Cuba — 1961
Congo (DRC) — 1960–1965
Dominican Republic — 1965
Laos — 1960s–1975
Cambodia — 1969–1975
Vietnam — 1955–1975
Chile — 1973
Nicaragua — 1980s
Guatemala — 1954–1996
Haiti — 1994–present
Afghanistan — 2001–2021
Iraq — 2003–present
Libya — 2011–present
Syria — 2011–present
Yemen — 2015–present
For a more complete list of United States foreign interventions follow this link.
Tired of slick pundits telling us how the economy works? Looking for economics for people who wear “boots not suits?” Well, here it is. From their Facebook Page . . .
“We’re done letting billionaires and lobbyists write the story. Roughcut tells it straight – how every policy, every deal, every dollar really lands on working folks. Loud. Gritty. Unfiltered. Forever working class, and never kissing ass.”
This is a video featuring Lee Calvin, a country musician and “folk economist” from Red Lodge Montana. Calvin talks about people criticizing farmers because so many of them voted for Trump. It’s just three minutes long and well worth a listen.
Welcome to the new Republican Party under the leadership of Art Wittich and its newly formed “Conservative Governance Committee.” The internal war within the state GOP continues to rage.
Back in August, Republican legislative incumbents received a questionnaire signed by Rep. Keith Regier, probing their loyalty to a slate of far-right positions. When questioned about the questionnaire, newly elected State GOP Chairman Art Wittich defended it, saying, “Republicans from across the state elected me as chair in June with a mandate to achieve conservative policies that reflect how much redder Montana has become,” according to an email statement.
Like A Bad Penny, Lola Just Keeps Coming Back
The initial questionnaire did not identify the members of the Conservative Governance Committee. However, the Montana State News Bureau reports that the committee includes Regier; Rep. Tracy Sharp of Polson; Rep. Mike Vinton of Billings; perennial statewide candidate Al Olszewski, who also chairs the Flathead County Republican Central Committee; and former Great Falls Representative Lola Sheldon-Galloway. The MTGOP declined to confirm the remaining members when asked about other rumored names.
Candidate questionnaire responses were collected, analyzed, and forwarded to party leadership. Those answers reportedly helped determine which candidates were invited to a campaign-skills training held in Helena in late October. According to the News Bureau, Wittich refused to answer questions about who funded the training, whether MTGOP funds were used to cover costs (the event was free to non-incumbents), or how the consulting firm running the training was selected.
Wittich, of course, comes with a long and sleazy history in Montana politics.
Ordinarily I‘d say, ”You can‘t make this stuff up.“ But with Montana‘s Public Service Commission, over-the-topness — and making stuff up — has become de rigeur.
Remember the Koopman controversy five years ago? “Someone” at the PSC acquired Commissioner Roger Koopman’s work emails, among which were personal communications with his family, and leaked them to a right-wing news website. Koopman sued the PSC for $2.2 million for defaming him and invading his family’s privacy.
Why was Koopman using a public email account for personal communications? Nobody asked.
And who leaked the emails? Ah, the bobbing and weaving. Although the website publisher embraced Montanans’ right to know when it came to posting the emails, he eschewed our right to know who leaked them
The records request suggested Commissioner Randy Pinocci was the leaker, but apparently his cell phone suffered a crickets infestation. And when PSC Chairman Brad Johnson was asked why he signed the request, he said “someone” must have used his stamp. Sheesh.
Ultimately, the PSC and Koopman settled the claim out of court for $155,000. Your taxes and mine picked up the tab.
In 2023, Commissioner Pinocci was back in the headlines. After an altercation with a renter’s brother, Pinocci was charged with disorderly conduct — specifically, challenging to fight or fighting the brother by getting in his face, bumping chests, and yelling.
Pinocci’s defense? He’s too chubby to chest-bump. Criminy
And this year, the Molnar melodrama. Having served on the PSC earlier in the century, Brad Molnar seemed like a good choice for chairman upon re-election. Minds and hearts changed quickly. In July, he himself announced that the PSC was investigating him for professional misconduct.
His response? If you don‘t like me, don‘t re-elect me. “[People] knew what they were getting when they got me … a redneck from Laurel that’ll stand up and fight back.”
Had he sexually harassed Commissioner Annie Bukacek? A reporter asked. “My wife is a hottie,” he responded, displaying her photograph. “I don’t know why I would.” Egad.
And now, what we hope is rock bottom: redneck retribution. Ousted from leadership last week, Molnar is fighting back. He filed an ethics complaint against Bukacek, who kept her job as a physician when she assumed her job as a commissioner. Molnar alleges she’s using PSC office equipment to do that medical work. And he can prove it: He’s amassed a ream’s worth of her documents from the PSC trash.
“I’m not a dumpster diver,” he claims. All appearances are to the contrary.
If this were “The Real Housewives of the PSC” or “The Amazing Disgrace,” we might be amused, if not enthralled, by getting to watch this series without subscribing to Pluto TV Reality. But these pension-padders run a government agency promising Montanans “continued access to utility services that are affordable, reliable, and sustainable for the long-term [sic].” That access has never been more imperiled.
Commissioners, you should be ensuring our investments in clean energy keep us on the path toward low-cost, renewable, and sustainable power. You’re not. While you sneak in and out of copy rooms and email servers and trash bins, NorthWestern Energy’s investments in renewable energy are steadily declining.
You should be ensuring that NWE makes sound investments, both monetarily and environmentally. You’re not. While you chest-bump and -thump, our utility monopoly has built a methane-fired power plant with alarming cost overruns and is throwing good money after bad at the nation’s dirtiest coal plant.
You should be protecting us from a monopoly more interested in increasing corporate profits than decreasing our utility costs. You’re not. You approved a 28% electricity rate increase last year, and should be battling an additional 26% increase this year instead of collecting ammo on one another.
You should be protecting us from further risky ventures — like investing in data centers that will wreak havoc on our water supply, our power grid, and our rates. You’re not. Let me guess your excuse: Having a hottie for a spouse is too distracting?
Enough spy vs. spy. Do the job we elected you to do … and ONLY that job.
Mary Moe is an educator, former Montana Legislator and former City Commissioner in Great Falls. Her editorials appear regularly in Lee Papers.
