by Ken Toole | Feb 9, 2026 | Democrats, Elections, Independent, Politics
Mr. Bodnar,
We are writing about the recent news coverage of your potential run for the U.S. Senate. If you are seriously considering such a run, we urge you to run as a Democrat rather than as an Independent.
Those urging you to run as an independent because a Democrat “can’t win” are wrong. Their opinion is apparently based on polling and Jon Tester’s recent loss to Tim Sheehy. Some “professional political people” in Montana are advocating that organizations and institutions forming the traditional Democratic base support moderate Republicans and Independents rather than Democrats out of desperation. They are mistaken. We wrote a blog post on the past performance of Independent candidates in Montana. We urge you to read it: https://wtf406.com/2026/01/handing-steve-daines-the-next-election/
Before going further, we would like to point out that the public discussion of this Independent scheme is all about strategy and game playing. Politics, at its best, is about the issues and policy initiatives to address those issues. At its worst, politics is anything-goes cynical game playing. . . and lots and lots of special interest money. Obviously, this Independent strategy falls into the second category.
In addition to the historical evidence in our post, we urge you to consider a couple other points.
First, the idea that your race as an Independent will avoid the tarnished brand of Democrats is naive. Before you have even announced, the Republicans are out with an attack ad: https://www.montanarightnow.com/montana/political-group-releases-ad-targeting-departing-um-president-seth-bodnar/article_309940b3-3514-463e-bbb9-ffd45149f759.html. The chair of the Missoula Republican Central Committee has an editorial circulating in papers around the state calling you “Sneaky Seth” among other things. Whether you run as an Independent or a Democrat, you will be smeared by the Republican attack machine. Steve Daines will be extremely well funded and will run a dirty campaign.
Second, Democratic base voters are a significant segment of the population you would have if you prevail in the primary. Instead of looking at polling, which is increasingly unreliable, we encourage you to look at actual election results in Montana. The 2024 election in the Eastern Congressional District illustrates the value of Democratic base voters. The Democratic candidate in that race was John Driscoll. Despite the fact that Driscoll ran virtually no campaign, he garnered 33.9 percent of the vote simply because he had a “D” behind his name on the ballot. That percentage would be even higher in the Western District. In the Eastern District race in 2022, Independent candidate Gary Buchanan captured only 22 percent of the vote.
As the deadline for filing approaches, we hope you will carefully consider which party more closely aligns with your beliefs on issues and realize that you have very little chance of prevailing as an Independent in Montana.
Sincerely,
WTF406
by Ken Toole | Feb 6, 2026 | Republicans, Voting
After controversy about spending close to $200,000 of public funds sending campaign style post cards to Montana voters featuring a photo shopped picture of her standing next to Donald Trump, Secretary of State, Christi Jacobsen is in hot water again.
This time Jacobsen is being questioned about sending confidential voter information to the United States Department of Justice. On February 4, The Montana Free Press reported that Jacobsen said that she had “fully complied” with the Department of Justice’s request for an unredacted complete file of Montana voters which contain confidential information. Jacobsen subsequently denied sending the information. Correspondence to the Montana Free Press from an attorney in Jacobsen’s office said, “Your below referenced article is filled with false information, deception, and dangerously inaccurate assumptions that are causing immediate damage. You specifically state in multiple places in the article that the above was turned over. Such was not. A public voter file is entirely different from a confidential, unredacted voter file.”
Wow. They seem pretty angry and very definitely say they did no such thing. Funny thing is that Jacobsen’s office then refused numerous attempts by the Montana Free Press to obtain further information. Well, of course they wouldn’t respond. . . none of our Republican statewide elected officials talk to Montana reporters, nor do they meet with voters. It’s a page from their political play book.
Here’s a link to the full story.
https://montanafreepress.org/2026/02/04/secretary-of-state-christi-jacobsen-complies-with-federal-demand-for-montana-voter-data/
Also check out Helena Lovick’s post on Jacobsen’s post card fiasco.
Taxpayers Foot the Bill for Pricey Partisan Postcard
by Helena Lovick | Feb 3, 2026 | Money, Republicans, Taxpayers, Voting
A couple of weeks ago, Montana’s Republican Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen sent out a mailer with a picture of herself standing next to a constipated-looking, photoshopped image of dTrump. I was an unlucky recipient of said postcard along with about 467,000 other Montana households.
$200,000 Price Tag for Taxpayers
The postcard bragged about how the Secretary of State office is using a program to verify that only U.S. citizens are voting. It has come to light, thanks to Democratic Representative Kelly Kortum (D-Bozeman), that it cost taxpayers around $200,000 dollars to mail that dumbassery.
Privacy Violating Voter Program
The program SoS Jacobsen was bragging about is the “SAVE tool” and comes “free” from the MAGA Administration. In an underwhelming rollout, the SAVE tool managed to flag 23 potential non-citizen voters in all of Montana. Wow…..23! That’s….not a lot. But remember, we must threaten you with the terrifying possibility that a couple non-citizens voted out of 785,000+ total Montana voters. That sounds terrifying.
As more icing on the cake, the privacy violating SAVE tool may also erroneously flag voters and disenfranchise eligible voters.
Partisan Shmartisan
Aside from its naked partisanship, the postcard clearly served a political purpose. But the Gianforte-appointed Commissioner of Political Practices, Chris Gallus, disagreed and found that the postcard did not serve a political purpose in a complaint dismissal.
In response to the complaint dismissal by the CoPP, Christi Jacobsen posted a Facebook post on January 21st saying, “The lyrics that come to mind are: “You’re mad, I’m back, big mad. He’s mad, she’s mad, big sad – Haha, don’t care, stay mad” – 6ix9ine.”
Aside from the complete detachment from professional norms and civility, the quoting of 6ix9ine was quite the choice. If you’re going to quote a person as a public official, wouldn’t you want to do some minimal vetting so you don’t accidently quote a criminal? 6ix9ine is a felon with multiple felonies, including use of a child in a sexual performance, racketeering, gun charges, and drug offenses. But I guess Republicans have become more and more comfortable with felons thanks to felon-in-chief dTrump.
Hey! What About Our Money?
There remain unanswered questions about the postcard costs ($200,000+!?) and if the SoS office has turned over voter records to the federal government.
These shady actions are unsurprising from SoS Jacobsen. She has a long history of ignoring norms and illegal actions. Some of her greatest hits also include:
by Helena Lovick | Jan 27, 2026 | Democrats, Elections, Republicans
Former U.S. Senator Jon Tester
Great Falls, MT
[For transparency, I am the previous chair and current vice chair of the Cascade County Democrats. The opinions presented here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Cascade County Democrats. – Helena Lovick]
Last week a message supposedly written by former U.S. Senator Jon Tester leaked. (Tester hasn’t confirmed or denied the text message…pretty clear it’s real.) Many of Tester’s long-time supporters, including myself, are pissed about its content and here’s why.
What was the message about?
The leaked message covered Tester’s thoughts on the Democratic Party, his experience running for office, and what he thinks of the probable run by University of Montana President Seth Bodnar for U.S. Senate (Bodnar resigned late last week).
Former UM President Seth Bodnar
The Good
Before I go off about my personal thoughts about Tester’s views, I’ll first give him some credit. I’ll admit that as a three-term U.S. Senator Tester knows a hell of a lot more than me about what it takes to run for the U.S. Senate and win. In Tester’s opinion, to win the candidate “has to run a near flawless race that is well funded and well staffed.” He also acknowledged that we need a Senator to “fight to stop all the insanity that is going on in our dictatorship today, not rubber stamp it.” Agreed, we certainly need a fighter, not someone ready to bow down to a dictatorship.
The Bad
In the message, Tester praised Bodnar but agreed with consultant Jim Messina that Bodnar can’t win as a Democrat. Tester also appears to support a Bodnar run as an independent, because “a generic independent does about a 8 point swing [against incumbent Daines]” in comparison to a generic Democrat. Before we get into the ugly content of Tester’s message, this already was raising some red flags for the Democratic base. If you abandon our party to win, what does that do to candidates that aren’t afraid to run as a Democrat? IT TAKES VOTES AWAY FROM THE DEMOCRAT. And then neither the Independent nor the Democrat win. Sounds pretty great if you are a Republican.
We saw this exact scenario play out in 2022. In that election, Independent Gary Buchanan threw his hat in the ring for the Montana Eastern U.S. House race. That move took votes away from the Democratic candidate Penny Ronning, but not the Republican Matt Rosendale. And for what?? Both Ronning and Buchanan lost and let Matt Rosendale (gag) easily carry the race with 56.5% of the vote. I would not encourage a left-leaning candidate to run as an independent in a Senate race that already has a Democratic candidate. In Montana, in our current political climate, you are dooming them both. And honestly, the consultant class doesn’t care, because they will make money if Bodnar runs as an Independent, no matter the outcome of the election.
The Ugly
Ok, I have some ick thinking of a Democrat encouraging an Independent to run over another Democrat, but what was ugly about Tester’s message?
Throughout his message, Tester made numerous jabs at Democrats:
- “…every race I ran … was about distancing myself from the Democratic Party.”
- “During my last two races the democratic Party was poison in my attempts to get re-elected.”
- “[the Democratic party] was a hell of an anvil.”
- [about Reilly Neill currently running for U.S. Senate against Daines] “We can watch her talk about trans rights, democracy and bathrooms…BTW she will lose by 25, but she is a Democrat.”
Political Parties Can Change
First, a political party isn’t static or an unchangeable institution. THE PARTY IS THE PEOPLE. If you agree with most of a party’s political positions, but don’t like something about it… then work to change it! Tester has been entrenched in the Democratic Party of Montana for over three decades. If it’s been such an anvil, where was the effort to make it better? A U.S. Senator has a huge impact on their home state’s political positions. Use that power to build a bench, to strengthen the party, speak up on party positions! I know, I know, it’s hard. But that’s what it takes if you want to make a difference.
Democrat Reilly Neill deserves respect for her efforts
Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Reilly Neill
Secondly, what a thing to say about Senate Candidate Reilly Neill. She is a Democratic candidate speaking up in alignment with the Democratic Party’s platform and political positions. Good Democrats DO stand with LGBTQ rights, especially when they are under attack like now. We DO speak up about the rising dictatorship in our country that is threatening our democracy. What else can an ethical candidate do? Appeal to a non-existent middle to try to eke out an 8 point swing to win? An 8 point swing that will never materialize because you will be splitting the vote between an Independent and a Democrat?
Yeah, that’s trash.
Republicans are scared anyway (good)
Even with the potential benefit of vote splitting favoring Daines, Republicans see the winds of change in public opinion now. They have already come out with an attack ad on Seth Bodnar before he even announced. Looks like Daines seat isn’t perfectly invulnerable.
Let’s beat Daines by not splitting our vote. Let’s be strategic and vote for the person unafraid to share their positions on issues, willing to take the heat. That’s a fighter. That’s the kind of person we need to elect. And that is the Democrat who wins the primary in June.
by Ken Toole | Jan 10, 2026 | Democrats, Elections, Republicans
Some political consultant types are working to hand the next election to Steve Daines. We all know that beating Steve Daines in the next election will be tough, but if there was ever an election cycle where Democrats had a chance of beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a red state, it is the 2026 election.
Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior combined with his callous disregard for the welfare of the country may well be wearing thin, even with his normally staunch supporters in the Republican Party. He is mired in a sex scandal, his economic program is driving up prices, he has unleashed masked thugs on the American public, and he has turned to foreign military actions in Venezuela, which angers some in his “America First” base.
Trump’s poll numbers are dropping. Recently Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned him. Seventeen Republican members of the U.S. House abandoned him to vote to extend the ACA subsidies. Five Republican Senators voted against him in passing the War Powers Act Resolution. But the Montana delegation, and particularly Steve Daines, are “all in” with Trump. . . .and Daines is on the ballot in 2026. Trump could prove to be a political liability.
Enter the consultant class in Montana. Tired of losing elections they have concluded that the problem is the Democratic “brand.” Of course it could be that consultants and pollsters don’t know what they are doing and Democrats are in the mess they are in because they have been listening to consultants for far too long. No doubt they have polling that shows a Democrat just can’t win. Their solution is simple. Dump the Democrats and run for the middle of the road as “independents.” They do all of that while pointing fingers at the “extremists” in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they are finding support among frustrated groups and individuals who blame electoral losses on the Democratic Party.
This is not a new idea. The problem is, it doesn’t work. In 2022 the “ideal” independent candidate surfaced in the Eastern District Congressional race for investment advisor, Gary Buchanan of Billings. Buchanan had worked in Republican (Racicot) and Democratic (Schwinden) administrations on economic development. He was a well established presence in the business community and was known for his moderate positions on issues. In the election he was running against a relatively unknown Democrat named Penny Ronning and the controversial Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent, Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale raised a little over $2 million, Buchanan raised about $500,000 and Ronning raised around $175,000. In the final vote count, Rosendale won with 57% of the vote. Buchanan only garnered 22% of the vote, barely beating Democrat Ronning’s total of 20%, despite having more than twice as much money.
Another telling independent campaign failure in Montana occurred during the 2024 election for Public Service Commission District #4 in the northwest corner of the state. In that race Republican incumbent, Jennifer Fielder, faced a challenge from independent candidate, Elena Evans. Evans raised around $50,000. In addition an “independent committee”, the Montana Ratepayers Association, reported spending nearly $500,000 for the race to support Evans and defeat Fielder. Fielder raised around $12,000. Despite the fact that the independent outspent the Republican and an unprecedented amount of money was spent by a dark money group supporting her, Evans received only 47% of the vote.
Independent presidential candidate Ross Perot received about 26% of the vote in Montana in 1992. Ralph Nader received 1.3% of the vote when he ran for president as an independent in 2004 and .75% when he ran again in 2008. For a complete listing of the performance of independents running in legislative races, follow this link (spoiler alert–none have won) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_third-party_and_independent_performances_in_Montana_state_legislative_elections?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Two ballot measures which were predicated on taking advantage of people’s frustration with the two party system and implementing changes to our election process in the 2024 election – CI-126 and CI-127 (inaccurately referred to as the open primary initiatives) – failed by 51.1% and 60.4% respectively. This despite the fact that the campaign supporting them was well organized and well funded and there was no organized opposition.
The consulting group managing the ballot measures was a group called Fireweed. PSC candidate, Elena Evans, paid them at least $21,000 of the total she raised for her campaign. And rumor has it that Fireweed and others are approaching the Democratic Party about rule changes that would facilitate the party election of independent candidates.
Of course most people say they are fed up with the two party system. Polling routinely shows relatively large numbers of people who self identify as independents. But that does not show up clearly in voting trends. If split ticket voting is any indication of party loyalty, or lack of it, it appears that Montana voters are becoming more partisan. A recent analysis of split ticket voting done by the Montana Free Press relied on data from one researcher who said that some split ticket rates dropped from 20% in 2018 to 8% last year. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/
Having an independent candidate, particularly a strong independent candidate as envisioned by the proponents of this idea, is dumping cold water on all down ticket Democrats on the ballot. Traditionally, Democrats in local, legislative and state-wide offices have benefitted from the campaigns at the top of the ticket. . .the so-called “coattail effect.” An independent at the top of the ticket will be punching down every time he is asked, “Why didn’t you run as a Democrat?” One can only hope that the Democrats running for other offices are paying careful attention to this effort.
So, now the rumor getting all the buzz in Helena hallways is that there is a group, paid political consultants (ie Fireweed) and others, promoting a run by University of Montana President Seth Bodner as an independent against Daines. Doing so would virtually hand this election to Steve Daines. The best they could achieve is to split the anti-Daines vote between the Democrat and the Independent. In the process they further weaken the Montana Democratic Party. It’s hard to understand how all of these so-called smartest people in the room come up with these harebrained schemes.
