We are writing about the recent news coverage of your potential run for the U.S. Senate. If you are seriously considering such a run, we urge you to run as a Democrat rather than as an Independent.
Those urging you to run as an independent because a Democrat “can’t win” are wrong. Their opinion is apparently based on polling and Jon Tester’s recent loss to Tim Sheehy. Some “professional political people” in Montana are advocating that organizations and institutions forming the traditional Democratic base support moderate Republicans and Independents rather than Democrats out of desperation. They are mistaken. We wrote a blog post on the past performance of Independent candidates in Montana. We urge you to read it: https://wtf406.com/2026/01/handing-steve-daines-the-next-election/
Before going further, we would like to point out that the public discussion of this Independent scheme is all about strategy and game playing. Politics, at its best, is about the issues and policy initiatives to address those issues. At its worst, politics is anything-goes cynical game playing. . . and lots and lots of special interest money. Obviously, this Independent strategy falls into the second category.
In addition to the historical evidence in our post, we urge you to consider a couple other points.
First, the idea that your race as an Independent will avoid the tarnished brand of Democrats is naive. Before you have even announced, the Republicans are out with an attack ad: https://www.montanarightnow.com/montana/political-group-releases-ad-targeting-departing-um-president-seth-bodnar/article_309940b3-3514-463e-bbb9-ffd45149f759.html. The chair of the Missoula Republican Central Committee has an editorial circulating in papers around the state calling you “Sneaky Seth” among other things. Whether you run as an Independent or a Democrat, you will be smeared by the Republican attack machine. Steve Daines will be extremely well funded and will run a dirty campaign.
Second, Democratic base voters are a significant segment of the population you would have if you prevail in the primary. Instead of looking at polling, which is increasingly unreliable, we encourage you to look at actual election results in Montana. The 2024 election in the Eastern Congressional District illustrates the value of Democratic base voters. The Democratic candidate in that race was John Driscoll. Despite the fact that Driscoll ran virtually no campaign, he garnered 33.9 percent of the vote simply because he had a “D” behind his name on the ballot. That percentage would be even higher in the Western District. In the Eastern District race in 2022, Independent candidate Gary Buchanan captured only 22 percent of the vote.
As the deadline for filing approaches, we hope you will carefully consider which party more closely aligns with your beliefs on issues and realize that you have very little chance of prevailing as an Independent in Montana.
Former legislator Steven Galloway has filed to run in senate district 11 in Cascade County. This video of Galloway at some Trump event says it all. If this offends you, consider running yourself. The deadline for filing is March 4th.
Some political consultant types are working to hand the next election to Steve Daines. We all know that beating Steve Daines in the next election will be tough, but if there was ever an election cycle where Democrats had a chance of beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a red state, it is the 2026 election.
Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior combined with his callous disregard for the welfare of the country may well be wearing thin, even with his normally staunch supporters in the Republican Party. He is mired in a sex scandal, his economic program is driving up prices, he has unleashed masked thugs on the American public, and he has turned to foreign military actions in Venezuela, which angers some in his “America First” base.
Trump’s poll numbers are dropping. Recently Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned him. Seventeen Republican members of the U.S. House abandoned him to vote to extend the ACA subsidies. Five Republican Senators voted against him in passing the War Powers Act Resolution. But the Montana delegation, and particularly Steve Daines, are “all in” with Trump. . . .and Daines is on the ballot in 2026. Trump could prove to be a political liability.
Enter the consultant class in Montana. Tired of losing elections they have concluded that the problem is the Democratic “brand.” Of course it could be that consultants and pollsters don’t know what they are doing and Democrats are in the mess they are in because they have been listening to consultants for far too long. No doubt they have polling that shows a Democrat just can’t win. Their solution is simple. Dump the Democrats and run for the middle of the road as “independents.” They do all of that while pointing fingers at the “extremists” in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they are finding support among frustrated groups and individuals who blame electoral losses on the Democratic Party.
This is not a new idea. The problem is, it doesn’t work. In 2022 the “ideal” independent candidate surfaced in the Eastern District Congressional race for investment advisor, Gary Buchanan of Billings. Buchanan had worked in Republican (Racicot) and Democratic (Schwinden) administrations on economic development. He was a well established presence in the business community and was known for his moderate positions on issues. In the election he was running against a relatively unknown Democrat named Penny Ronning and the controversial Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent, Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale raised a little over $2 million, Buchanan raised about $500,000 and Ronning raised around $175,000. In the final vote count, Rosendale won with 57% of the vote. Buchanan only garnered 22% of the vote, barely beating Democrat Ronning’s total of 20%, despite having more than twice as much money.
Another telling independent campaign failure in Montana occurred during the 2024 election for Public Service Commission District #4 in the northwest corner of the state. In that race Republican incumbent, Jennifer Fielder, faced a challenge from independent candidate, Elena Evans. Evans raised around $50,000. In addition an “independent committee”, the Montana Ratepayers Association, reported spending nearly $500,000 for the race to support Evans and defeat Fielder. Fielder raised around $12,000. Despite the fact that the independent outspent the Republican and an unprecedented amount of money was spent by a dark money group supporting her, Evans received only 47% of the vote.
Two ballot measures which were predicated on taking advantage of people’s frustration with the two party system and implementing changes to our election process in the 2024 election – CI-126 and CI-127 (inaccurately referred to as the open primary initiatives) – failed by 51.1% and 60.4% respectively. This despite the fact that the campaign supporting them was well organized and well funded and there was no organized opposition.
The consulting group managing the ballot measures was a group called Fireweed. PSC candidate, Elena Evans, paid them at least $21,000 of the total she raised for her campaign. And rumor has it that Fireweed and others are approaching the Democratic Party about rule changes that would facilitate the party election of independent candidates.
Of course most people say they are fed up with the two party system. Polling routinely shows relatively large numbers of people who self identify as independents. But that does not show up clearly in voting trends. If split ticket voting is any indication of party loyalty, or lack of it, it appears that Montana voters are becoming more partisan. A recent analysis of split ticket voting done by the Montana Free Press relied on data from one researcher who said that some split ticket rates dropped from 20% in 2018 to 8% last year. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/
Having an independent candidate, particularly a strong independent candidate as envisioned by the proponents of this idea, is dumping cold water on all down ticket Democrats on the ballot. Traditionally, Democrats in local, legislative and state-wide offices have benefitted from the campaigns at the top of the ticket. . .the so-called “coattail effect.” An independent at the top of the ticket will be punching down every time he is asked, “Why didn’t you run as a Democrat?” One can only hope that the Democrats running for other offices are paying careful attention to this effort.
So, now the rumor getting all the buzz in Helena hallways is that there is a group, paid political consultants (ie Fireweed) and others, promoting a run by University of Montana President Seth Bodner as an independent against Daines. Doing so would virtually hand this election to Steve Daines. The best they could achieve is to split the anti-Daines vote between the Democrat and the Independent. In the process they further weaken the Montana Democratic Party. It’s hard to understand how all of these so-called smartest people in the room come up with these harebrained schemes.
The 2025 municipal election season is over so how did Great Falls do? First the new law passed by Montana Republicans in 2025 to require the addition of the voter’s birth year on the ballots with their signature led to a huge number of ballots being rejected.
In the 2023 Great Falls Municipal Election, 204 ballots were rejected.
Now we know that the new Birth Year Ballot law is working as intended. Spreading confusion, discouraging voters, and damaging trust in the electoral process. On top of that, it interferes with the work of our elections officials and reduces voter privacy. What a delight! Thanks so much Montana GOP* for your continued efforts to undermine elections! *(The House Bill 719 passed on a party line vote with no Democrats supporting it during the 2025 Montana Legislature).
How about the Election Results Themselves?
Here there are:
MAYOR
Cory Reeves: 11,650 (71.0%)
Jasmine Taylor: 4,416 (26.91%)
Write-In: 57
CITY COMMISSION
Pete Anderson: 5,249 (16.0%)
Joe McKenney: 8,756 (26.7%)
Matt Pipinich: 5,614 (17.1%)
Casey Schreiner: 8,578 (26.1%)
Write-In: 111
FIREWORKS
Yes (limit): 8,781 (53.5%)
No (do not limit): 7,294 (44.4%)
Well to be honest, the results weren’t what I was hoping for. But it could have been worse!
The Good News
We did not elect Pete Anderson to the City Commission after he proposed a homeless island where homeless people would be used as revenue-generating “tourist attraction” makinginternational headlines. The bar is in the ground and we cleared it! Let’s continue to keep out the crazies. And newly elected commissioner, Casey Schreiner, is a solid addition to the Great Falls City Commission.
The Meh News
Joe McKenney and Cory Reeves were both incumbents so their re-elections look like more of the same. A commission that seems to lack vision for fiscal responsibility with the growing deficit of the local aquatic center, a 27% utility rate hike, refusal to issue proclamations on LGBTQ rights and breast feeding, yanking of funding from our library after voters passed a levy trying to increase library funding and so much more. It’s a slow motion trainwreck as the current commission runs our city into the ground.
Thank you Jasmine, Matt, and Casey
Thankfully Jasmine Taylor challenged Cory Reeves and didn’t let him run unopposed. Her candidacy helped elevate the issues our city faces such as the Calumet tax protest situation, lack of support for the public library, and so forth. Thank you Jasmine Taylor, Matt Pipinich, and Casey Schreiner for offering a different vision for our city. A city of growth and embrace of diversity. We sure deserve better than this wishy-washy city commission untethered to moral ground as they make too many decisions based on their biases and supporters’ opinions. How about doing the right thing, not the easy thing? Maybe explain to citizens why a move is necessary even if it goes against your kneejerk surface values? What a world that would be…where politicians had a backbone and actually walked the walk of their values.
What’s Next?
Should progressives give up all hope and accept that the right-wing takeover of our town is insurmountable? Um, HELL NO. Change is in the wind. We all saw it on Election night. Although things didn’t go left in Great Falls, they RAN left in national news. Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, what an impressive rejection of the national politics led by trumple-thin-skin. It takes effort to move the pendulum left, and that means persistence. Let’s Keep Going.
Thompson had this to say about the recognition, “You shouldn’t do things just to get done, to be the first one to get done. Accuracy means more to the voter in the end result… I’d rather be the last one to finish and know that it was 100% accurate as to be the first one to finish and it not to be real accurate.” She concluded, “We want to serve the people. We want to give them the confidence and trust that, you know, elections are being conducted fairly accurately, transparent and they’re secure.”
Her competence and commitment to open and fair elections is a welcome relief after the chaos created by Clerk and Recorder Sandra Merchant, Commissioner Rae Grulkowski, and their gaggle of goofy election deniers. We also can’t forget the political courage demonstrated by County Commissioners Jim Larson and Joe Briggs for standing up the these folks and removing the election duties from Merchant’s office when it became clear she was not up to the job and was taking her marching orders from Commissioner Rae Grulkowski. WTF406.com wrote extensively about the attack on our election process from far right activists in Cascade County.
