[For transparency, I am the previous chair and current vice chair of the Cascade County Democrats. The opinions presented here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Cascade County Democrats. – Helena Lovick]
Last week a message supposedly written by former U.S. Senator Jon Tester leaked. (Tester hasn’t confirmed or denied the text message…pretty clear it’s real.) Many of Tester’s long-time supporters, including myself, are pissed about its content and here’s why.
What was the message about?
The leaked message covered Tester’s thoughts on the Democratic Party, his experience running for office, and what he thinks of the probable run by University of Montana President Seth Bodnar for U.S. Senate (Bodnar resigned late last week).
Former UM President Seth Bodnar
The Good
Before I go off about my personal thoughts about Tester’s views, I’ll first give him some credit. I’ll admit that as a three-term U.S. Senator Tester knows a hell of a lot more than me about what it takes to run for the U.S. Senate and win. In Tester’s opinion, to win the candidate “has to run a near flawless race that is well funded and well staffed.” He also acknowledged that we need a Senator to “fight to stop all the insanity that is going on in our dictatorship today, not rubber stamp it.” Agreed, we certainly need a fighter, not someone ready to bow down to a dictatorship.
The Bad
In the message, Tester praised Bodnar but agreed with consultant Jim Messina that Bodnar can’t win as a Democrat. Tester also appears to support a Bodnar run as an independent, because “a generic independent does about a 8 point swing [against incumbent Daines]” in comparison to a generic Democrat. Before we get into the ugly content of Tester’s message, this already was raising some red flags for the Democratic base. If you abandon our party to win, what does that do to candidates that aren’t afraid to run as a Democrat? IT TAKES VOTES AWAY FROM THE DEMOCRAT. And then neither the Independent nor the Democrat win. Sounds pretty great if you are a Republican.
We saw this exact scenario play out in 2022. In that election, Independent Gary Buchanan threw his hat in the ring for the Montana Eastern U.S. House race. That move took votes away from the Democratic candidate Penny Ronning, but not the Republican Matt Rosendale. And for what?? Both Ronning and Buchanan lost and let Matt Rosendale (gag) easily carry the race with 56.5% of the vote. I would not encourage a left-leaning candidate to run as an independent in a Senate race that already has a Democratic candidate. In Montana, in our current political climate, you are dooming them both. And honestly, the consultant class doesn’t care, because they will make money if Bodnar runs as an Independent, no matter the outcome of the election.
The Ugly
Ok, I have some ick thinking of a Democrat encouraging an Independent to run over another Democrat, but what was ugly about Tester’s message?
Throughout his message, Tester made numerous jabs at Democrats:
“…every race I ran … was about distancing myself from the Democratic Party.”
“During my last two races the democratic Party was poison in my attempts to get re-elected.”
“[the Democratic party] was a hell of an anvil.”
[about Reilly Neill currently running for U.S. Senate against Daines] “We can watch her talk about trans rights, democracy and bathrooms…BTW she will lose by 25, but she is a Democrat.”
Political Parties Can Change
First, a political party isn’t static or an unchangeable institution. THE PARTY IS THE PEOPLE. If you agree with most of a party’s political positions, but don’t like something about it… then work to change it! Tester has been entrenched in the Democratic Party of Montana for over three decades. If it’s been such an anvil, where was the effort to make it better? A U.S. Senator has a huge impact on their home state’s political positions. Use that power to build a bench, to strengthen the party, speak up on party positions! I know, I know, it’s hard. But that’s what it takes if you want to make a difference.
Democrat Reilly Neill deserves respect for her efforts
Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Reilly Neill
Secondly, what a thing to say about Senate Candidate Reilly Neill. She is a Democratic candidate speaking up in alignment with the Democratic Party’s platform and political positions. Good Democrats DO stand with LGBTQ rights, especially when they are under attack like now. We DO speak up about the rising dictatorship in our country that is threatening our democracy. What else can an ethical candidate do? Appeal to a non-existent middle to try to eke out an 8 point swing to win? An 8 point swing that will never materialize because you will be splitting the vote between an Independent and a Democrat?
Let’s beat Daines by not splitting our vote. Let’s be strategic and vote for the person unafraid to share their positions on issues, willing to take the heat. That’s a fighter. That’s the kind of person we need to elect. And that is the Democrat who wins the primary in June.
The news hit of another murder by ICE/CBP in Minneapolis on January 24th, 2026, just days after the murder of Renee Good. The victim was an ICU nurse without a criminal record, Alex Pretti, 37 years old. A video of the incident shows Pretti recording activities with his cell phone before he is forced to the ground by federal agents and shot.
Immediately, without providing any evidenceand certainly not based on video evidence,the White House is pushing lies that Jeffrey Pretti was a “would-be assassin” and “trying to murder federal agents.” Never show restraint and wait for the truth to come out of an investigation if you can make up lies to attack a left-wing person instead, am I right?
This is the textbook right-wing response we keep seeing. When reality doesn’t fit your narrative,photoshop it so it does. And in the case of dTrump, when your documented pedophilia might come back to haunt you, obscure attention from the Epstein files by starting a war on the American people in blue states.
Please let me lick your boots! – MAGA
Like clockwork, the MAGA faction just accepts every lie and talking point fed to them by Daddy dTrump. They can’t possibly be wrong about him; it must be the rest of the world that is wrong!
Hey MAGAs, instead of twisting yourselves into a pretzel to justify every shitty, illegal, and straight up evil thing done by the dTrump administration. Consider. Maybe. Just maybe. The orange menace and his cronies are the baddies.
Yes, yes you are!
And no, it’s not about immigration enforcement. If they were truly worried about dangerous undocumented immigrants running amuck, why aren’t they focused on Texas and Florida where manymore undocumented immigrants reside? Oh right, because that’s bullshit. We know it is retaliation.
Well, we can’t work with them. So how can we resist this?
What can Great Falls Residents Do?
SHOW UP. There are now daily protests on the Central Ave West bridge in Great Falls. At noon on the weekends and at 4 PM on the weekdays, weather permitting. For your own safety at protests,do not engage with counter protesters. You have a first amendment right to film public activities. But maintain space between yourself and dangerous situations.
CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES. In Montana, our current Congressional delegation (Zinke, Downing, Daines and Sheehy) are all Trumpers, but make it uncomfortable for them. Make them have to hear our opinions. Tell them to stop funding ICE.
If you don’t know where to start, KEEP SHOWING UP. Go to rallies, go to meetings, go to community educational events. Ask questions, be loud, be a voice for empathy and humanity.
Find out where you can help and do it. Don’t wait for permission. Don’t wait to be told. If you see a need, fill it.
I read anarticle by a journalist observing the resistance to ICE that is taking place in Minneapolis. And one of the things she talked about was the widespread push back people are doing there and that there is no “central” leader, but several decentralized leaders are organizing throughout the city. Be that leader or find one to work with.
We all are needed and if everyone that is as concerned as me about the direction of this country steps up, we will win. We can do this. Don’t be discouraged. Keep Going.
Former legislator Steven Galloway has filed to run in senate district 11 in Cascade County. This video of Galloway at some Trump event says it all. If this offends you, consider running yourself. The deadline for filing is March 4th.
Some political consultant types are working to hand the next election to Steve Daines. We all know that beating Steve Daines in the next election will be tough, but if there was ever an election cycle where Democrats had a chance of beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a red state, it is the 2026 election.
Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior combined with his callous disregard for the welfare of the country may well be wearing thin, even with his normally staunch supporters in the Republican Party. He is mired in a sex scandal, his economic program is driving up prices, he has unleashed masked thugs on the American public, and he has turned to foreign military actions in Venezuela, which angers some in his “America First” base.
Trump’s poll numbers are dropping. Recently Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned him. Seventeen Republican members of the U.S. House abandoned him to vote to extend the ACA subsidies. Five Republican Senators voted against him in passing the War Powers Act Resolution. But the Montana delegation, and particularly Steve Daines, are “all in” with Trump. . . .and Daines is on the ballot in 2026. Trump could prove to be a political liability.
Enter the consultant class in Montana. Tired of losing elections they have concluded that the problem is the Democratic “brand.” Of course it could be that consultants and pollsters don’t know what they are doing and Democrats are in the mess they are in because they have been listening to consultants for far too long. No doubt they have polling that shows a Democrat just can’t win. Their solution is simple. Dump the Democrats and run for the middle of the road as “independents.” They do all of that while pointing fingers at the “extremists” in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they are finding support among frustrated groups and individuals who blame electoral losses on the Democratic Party.
This is not a new idea. The problem is, it doesn’t work. In 2022 the “ideal” independent candidate surfaced in the Eastern District Congressional race for investment advisor, Gary Buchanan of Billings. Buchanan had worked in Republican (Racicot) and Democratic (Schwinden) administrations on economic development. He was a well established presence in the business community and was known for his moderate positions on issues. In the election he was running against a relatively unknown Democrat named Penny Ronning and the controversial Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent, Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale raised a little over $2 million, Buchanan raised about $500,000 and Ronning raised around $175,000. In the final vote count, Rosendale won with 57% of the vote. Buchanan only garnered 22% of the vote, barely beating Democrat Ronning’s total of 20%, despite having more than twice as much money.
Another telling independent campaign failure in Montana occurred during the 2024 election for Public Service Commission District #4 in the northwest corner of the state. In that race Republican incumbent, Jennifer Fielder, faced a challenge from independent candidate, Elena Evans. Evans raised around $50,000. In addition an “independent committee”, the Montana Ratepayers Association, reported spending nearly $500,000 for the race to support Evans and defeat Fielder. Fielder raised around $12,000. Despite the fact that the independent outspent the Republican and an unprecedented amount of money was spent by a dark money group supporting her, Evans received only 47% of the vote.
Two ballot measures which were predicated on taking advantage of people’s frustration with the two party system and implementing changes to our election process in the 2024 election – CI-126 and CI-127 (inaccurately referred to as the open primary initiatives) – failed by 51.1% and 60.4% respectively. This despite the fact that the campaign supporting them was well organized and well funded and there was no organized opposition.
The consulting group managing the ballot measures was a group called Fireweed. PSC candidate, Elena Evans, paid them at least $21,000 of the total she raised for her campaign. And rumor has it that Fireweed and others are approaching the Democratic Party about rule changes that would facilitate the party election of independent candidates.
Of course most people say they are fed up with the two party system. Polling routinely shows relatively large numbers of people who self identify as independents. But that does not show up clearly in voting trends. If split ticket voting is any indication of party loyalty, or lack of it, it appears that Montana voters are becoming more partisan. A recent analysis of split ticket voting done by the Montana Free Press relied on data from one researcher who said that some split ticket rates dropped from 20% in 2018 to 8% last year. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/
Having an independent candidate, particularly a strong independent candidate as envisioned by the proponents of this idea, is dumping cold water on all down ticket Democrats on the ballot. Traditionally, Democrats in local, legislative and state-wide offices have benefitted from the campaigns at the top of the ticket. . .the so-called “coattail effect.” An independent at the top of the ticket will be punching down every time he is asked, “Why didn’t you run as a Democrat?” One can only hope that the Democrats running for other offices are paying careful attention to this effort.
So, now the rumor getting all the buzz in Helena hallways is that there is a group, paid political consultants (ie Fireweed) and others, promoting a run by University of Montana President Seth Bodner as an independent against Daines. Doing so would virtually hand this election to Steve Daines. The best they could achieve is to split the anti-Daines vote between the Democrat and the Independent. In the process they further weaken the Montana Democratic Party. It’s hard to understand how all of these so-called smartest people in the room come up with these harebrained schemes.
Donald Trump’s intervention (AKA invasion of Venezuela and kidnapping of Venezuelan president/dictator Maduro) is likely not going to turn out well. Historically, we have done the same or similar things many times and they never turn out well. Inevitably it leads to loss of lives, many of them American soldiers, and years of being mired down in expensive military actions which last for decades. The United States has a long history of failure with regime change, especially when we do it all on our own. This is a list of the countries where we have attempted regime change directly and indirectly and have failed since 1950:
Iran — 1953
Guatemala — 1954
Cuba — 1961
Congo (DRC) — 1960–1965
Dominican Republic — 1965
Laos — 1960s–1975
Cambodia — 1969–1975
Vietnam — 1955–1975
Chile — 1973
Nicaragua — 1980s
Guatemala — 1954–1996
Haiti — 1994–present
Afghanistan — 2001–2021
Iraq — 2003–present
Libya — 2011–present
Syria — 2011–present
Yemen — 2015–present
For a more complete list of United States foreign interventions follow this link.
