by Ken Toole | Mar 7, 2026 | Independent, Politics, Republicans
Most of us were stunned at the Machiavellian maneuvering on the last day of the filing period for public office in Montana.
After a brief period of “will he or won’t he file as a Democrat,” Seth Bodnar filed as an independent for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat on March 4 at 9:17 AM.
Some time after that Steve Daines withdrew from the Senate race.
Billings lawyer, Kurt Alme, filed to run for the Senate seat at 4:52 PM on March 4, just eight minutes before the deadline.
So here’s one reason for the last minute shuffle on the filing deadline.
Republicans understood that Seth Bodnar could be a compelling candidate if he filed as a Democrat. Much less so if he filed as an independent. Incumbent Daines is the strongest person to protect that Republican seat from a serious Democratic challenge.
Early in the morning of the last day to file Bodnar files as an independent which kicked off this Spy vs Spy conspiracy. Daines resigns. Hours later Alme announces he is running with the support of Daines, President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy and Gov. Greg Gianforte. Obviously this plan has been in the works for some time.
But why would Daines do this now rather than waiting until after the election? It’s hard to argue that Alme or anyone else in the Republican ranks would be as strong a candidate as Daines, who has the power of incumbency and $4.9 million in the bank before the race even starts.
The answer is simple. If Daines resigned after the election the process to fill a vacant Senate seat is that the State Republican Central Committee nominates three people, and the Governor selects from those names. And the truth is the GOP in Montana is dominated by far-right looneys and Daines and his pals didn’t trust them to nominate someone who doesn’t wear a tin hat to bed. Someone like Alme (who would be a big improvement over Daines in the Senate).
Or it could just be that Daines is a megalomaniac who couldn’t stand not choosing his successor.
You decide.
See our previous posts on the Montana Senate race
Handing Steve Daines The Next Election?
Open Letter To Seth Bodnar
Tester Disses Democrats
by Ken Toole | Feb 17, 2026 | Facebook, Fight, Politics, Republicans
The Conservative Choice for Cascade County! Vote George Nikolakakos
It all started when local Republican legislator George Nikolakakos posted an award he won from the Conservative Political Action Conference for conservative achievement. Sleazy Jake just couldn’t stand it, and the fight was on.
But first a little background. Most of our readers know that Nikolakakos is a “traditional” Republican legislator from Cascade County. The Liberty Bell, a far-right paper you find at some local stores, compares Nikakakolas and his legislator wife, Melissa, to Julius and Ethel Rosenberg. The Rosenbergs were convicted of espionage and executed in 1953 during the Cold War.
Jake Eaton is a right-wing political operative out of Billings. He has most recently aligned himself with the most right-wing elements of the Republican Party. Beyond that he has a long record of playing fast and loose with facts and money. For some details about Eaton, check out WTF406.com’s previous post. The background on Eaton begins about halfway through this post about attack ads directed at Matt Rosendale. https://wtf406.com/2023/10/rosendale-slimed-in-new-tv-ads/
Let’s Get Back to the Fight. It begins with George’s announcement.
(the below exchange is copied directly from Facebook. No edits have been made)·
Jake Eaton responds
In no world is George a conservative. He voted for higher taxes and huge increases spending. Along with supporting Democrats efforts to block judicial accountability. He could generously be called a moderate Republican. The only way you could call him a conservative is if you were referring to him as a conservative Democrat.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton
I appreciate your “generosity” Jake! Why would our conservative Governor support these “higher taxes” and huge spending increases? No one buys that bullshit. Why do you hate our Governor so much? I’m proud to stand by his agenda and our accomplishments.
Also you’re right! I’ve knocked many thousands of doors… The way we turned Great Falls from blue to red in 5 years is because old school common sense conservative ex-democrats and independents have rejected woke BS and want normal people to represent them. Tester won my district while I won it by 25 points. That’s because the people of Great Falls still want independent minded, real, common sense conservatives, not burn it all down cos-play garbage.
Jake Eaton to George Nikolakakos
everyone can see that your tax shift raised taxes on farmers, ranchers and small businesses. They just look at the bills and see they are higher than last year – pretty simple. I’d think even a dimwit like you could read the tax bills and understand that. This legislature spent billions more than the Governor’s proposed budget. $1 billion alone in the Llew Jones bureaucracy slush fund.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton
Funny because when I’m knocking doors I pull up I-tax and show people their tax bills. Almost every time it’s $500+ less. That’s because for 90%+ plus it is. And what they can’t see is the other 500 that would be higher if we didn’t pass the Governors Homestead exemption. Why are you standing with out of state Big Sky short term rental billionaires against hard working Montanans trying to raise families and retire here? Sad!
Eric Hinebauch, Chair of the local Republican Central Committee, to Jake Eaton
you are a hard one to figure out! You sure like to run your mouth against our local legislators, but here’s the deal Cascade County homeowners experienced real tax breaks. So keep running your mouth, but Cascade County knows better than to listen to some career hired gun. Jake you are the SWAMP in Montana, we need more George Nikolakakos’s and less SWAMP creatures like Jake Eaton!
Jake Eaton to George Nikolakakos
yes you shifted taxes from homeowners to farmers, ranchers, renters and small businesses. You didn’t reduce the amount of money being collected you just shifted who pays for it. Ask the renters who are seeing double digit rent increases thanks to your vote how much they care that you saved $500. Ask the small businesses paying thousand more on their commercial space if they care about their $400 rebate on their house. Also you clearly don’t even know what you voted for, the homestead exemption hasn’t even gone into effect yet, that begins in tax year 2026.
Jake Eaton to Eric Hinebauch
homeowners may see a break but thanks to the tax shift renters, farmers, ranchers and small businesses are paying more. We didn’t actually cut taxes or reduce the money being collected from property taxes we just shifted who pays it. Cascade county does have some good legislators, George is not one of them.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton
lame talking points paid for by the folks who buy your mouth as a hired gun. Ag was made whole which is why Farm Bureau and others didn’t oppose our prioritizing real Montanans. Small businesses saw a cut. The big players who saw cuts at our expense over the last 10 years are back at less than inflation increases, still less than they paid a few years go. We’re not paying for your crony special interests anymore bud. And we cut every. single. human Montanans income tax. And we balanced the budget. And we saved for a rainy day. And we properly funded law enforcement, roads, trades education, firefighting etc. My comments are not bought and paid for my special interests. Who is paying for your commentary today?
Jake Eaton to George Nikolakakos
I like that you totally ignored renters and small businesses and tried to focus on ag, when in reality they are also seeing increases. The difference between us actual conservatives and big government republicans like you is that you are fine with every increasing government spending, we are not. We all want to fund firefighting, police and roads but there is room to cut local spending and reduce the overall property tax burden. For example the Great Falls city administrator makes $70,000 more than the Governor. In Billings it’s $80k more. The Great Falls Public Schools Superintendent makes $50,000 more than the State Superintendent of schools. In Yellowstone county it’s $75k more. These local budgets are even more bloated than Llew Jones’ state budget and there is plenty of room to cut and reduce property taxes across the board.
George Nikolakakos to Jake Eaton
when did you start caring about renters? I passed an overwhelmingly supported Elderly and Homeowner/renter tax credit increase and had the govenror sign my bill to cut millions in property tax relief on PTAP. Renters do well under the new law as landlords like me have seen decreases. I own dozens of rentals and have seen decreases as have landlord friends. Certainly administrators can work for less. I support local governments who control those decisions making them. You support centrally assessed out of state players getting relief on our backs.That’s because they pay your salary and for the the words coming out of your mouth.
So, what does all this mean?
#1. The Republican party is eating their own.
#2. It is laughable to consider Nikolakakos a “moderate” in view of his voting record.
(See our previous post: https://wtf406.com/2025/08/myth-of-the-moderate-republican/ )
#3. Republicans are attacking our freedoms no what matter what they call themselves.
by Ken Toole | Feb 6, 2026 | Republicans, Voting
After controversy about spending close to $200,000 of public funds sending campaign style post cards to Montana voters featuring a photo shopped picture of her standing next to Donald Trump, Secretary of State, Christi Jacobsen is in hot water again.
This time Jacobsen is being questioned about sending confidential voter information to the United States Department of Justice. On February 4, The Montana Free Press reported that Jacobsen said that she had “fully complied” with the Department of Justice’s request for an unredacted complete file of Montana voters which contain confidential information. Jacobsen subsequently denied sending the information. Correspondence to the Montana Free Press from an attorney in Jacobsen’s office said, “Your below referenced article is filled with false information, deception, and dangerously inaccurate assumptions that are causing immediate damage. You specifically state in multiple places in the article that the above was turned over. Such was not. A public voter file is entirely different from a confidential, unredacted voter file.”
Wow. They seem pretty angry and very definitely say they did no such thing. Funny thing is that Jacobsen’s office then refused numerous attempts by the Montana Free Press to obtain further information. Well, of course they wouldn’t respond. . . none of our Republican statewide elected officials talk to Montana reporters, nor do they meet with voters. It’s a page from their political play book.
Here’s a link to the full story.
https://montanafreepress.org/2026/02/04/secretary-of-state-christi-jacobsen-complies-with-federal-demand-for-montana-voter-data/
Also check out Helena Lovick’s post on Jacobsen’s post card fiasco.
Taxpayers Foot the Bill for Pricey Partisan Postcard
by Helena Lovick | Feb 3, 2026 | Money, Republicans, Taxpayers, Voting
A couple of weeks ago, Montana’s Republican Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen sent out a mailer with a picture of herself standing next to a constipated-looking, photoshopped image of dTrump. I was an unlucky recipient of said postcard along with about 467,000 other Montana households.
$200,000 Price Tag for Taxpayers
The postcard bragged about how the Secretary of State office is using a program to verify that only U.S. citizens are voting. It has come to light, thanks to Democratic Representative Kelly Kortum (D-Bozeman), that it cost taxpayers around $200,000 dollars to mail that dumbassery.
Privacy Violating Voter Program
The program SoS Jacobsen was bragging about is the “SAVE tool” and comes “free” from the MAGA Administration. In an underwhelming rollout, the SAVE tool managed to flag 23 potential non-citizen voters in all of Montana. Wow…..23! That’s….not a lot. But remember, we must threaten you with the terrifying possibility that a couple non-citizens voted out of 785,000+ total Montana voters. That sounds terrifying.
As more icing on the cake, the privacy violating SAVE tool may also erroneously flag voters and disenfranchise eligible voters.
Partisan Shmartisan
Aside from its naked partisanship, the postcard clearly served a political purpose. But the Gianforte-appointed Commissioner of Political Practices, Chris Gallus, disagreed and found that the postcard did not serve a political purpose in a complaint dismissal.
In response to the complaint dismissal by the CoPP, Christi Jacobsen posted a Facebook post on January 21st saying, “The lyrics that come to mind are: “You’re mad, I’m back, big mad. He’s mad, she’s mad, big sad – Haha, don’t care, stay mad” – 6ix9ine.”
Aside from the complete detachment from professional norms and civility, the quoting of 6ix9ine was quite the choice. If you’re going to quote a person as a public official, wouldn’t you want to do some minimal vetting so you don’t accidently quote a criminal? 6ix9ine is a felon with multiple felonies, including use of a child in a sexual performance, racketeering, gun charges, and drug offenses. But I guess Republicans have become more and more comfortable with felons thanks to felon-in-chief dTrump.
Hey! What About Our Money?
There remain unanswered questions about the postcard costs ($200,000+!?) and if the SoS office has turned over voter records to the federal government.
These shady actions are unsurprising from SoS Jacobsen. She has a long history of ignoring norms and illegal actions. Some of her greatest hits also include:
by Helena Lovick | Jan 27, 2026 | Democrats, Elections, Republicans
Former U.S. Senator Jon Tester
Great Falls, MT
[For transparency, I am the previous chair and current vice chair of the Cascade County Democrats. The opinions presented here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Cascade County Democrats. – Helena Lovick]
Last week a message supposedly written by former U.S. Senator Jon Tester leaked. (Tester hasn’t confirmed or denied the text message…pretty clear it’s real.) Many of Tester’s long-time supporters, including myself, are pissed about its content and here’s why.
What was the message about?
The leaked message covered Tester’s thoughts on the Democratic Party, his experience running for office, and what he thinks of the probable run by University of Montana President Seth Bodnar for U.S. Senate (Bodnar resigned late last week).
Former UM President Seth Bodnar
The Good
Before I go off about my personal thoughts about Tester’s views, I’ll first give him some credit. I’ll admit that as a three-term U.S. Senator Tester knows a hell of a lot more than me about what it takes to run for the U.S. Senate and win. In Tester’s opinion, to win the candidate “has to run a near flawless race that is well funded and well staffed.” He also acknowledged that we need a Senator to “fight to stop all the insanity that is going on in our dictatorship today, not rubber stamp it.” Agreed, we certainly need a fighter, not someone ready to bow down to a dictatorship.
The Bad
In the message, Tester praised Bodnar but agreed with consultant Jim Messina that Bodnar can’t win as a Democrat. Tester also appears to support a Bodnar run as an independent, because “a generic independent does about a 8 point swing [against incumbent Daines]” in comparison to a generic Democrat. Before we get into the ugly content of Tester’s message, this already was raising some red flags for the Democratic base. If you abandon our party to win, what does that do to candidates that aren’t afraid to run as a Democrat? IT TAKES VOTES AWAY FROM THE DEMOCRAT. And then neither the Independent nor the Democrat win. Sounds pretty great if you are a Republican.
We saw this exact scenario play out in 2022. In that election, Independent Gary Buchanan threw his hat in the ring for the Montana Eastern U.S. House race. That move took votes away from the Democratic candidate Penny Ronning, but not the Republican Matt Rosendale. And for what?? Both Ronning and Buchanan lost and let Matt Rosendale (gag) easily carry the race with 56.5% of the vote. I would not encourage a left-leaning candidate to run as an independent in a Senate race that already has a Democratic candidate. In Montana, in our current political climate, you are dooming them both. And honestly, the consultant class doesn’t care, because they will make money if Bodnar runs as an Independent, no matter the outcome of the election.
The Ugly
Ok, I have some ick thinking of a Democrat encouraging an Independent to run over another Democrat, but what was ugly about Tester’s message?
Throughout his message, Tester made numerous jabs at Democrats:
- “…every race I ran … was about distancing myself from the Democratic Party.”
- “During my last two races the democratic Party was poison in my attempts to get re-elected.”
- “[the Democratic party] was a hell of an anvil.”
- [about Reilly Neill currently running for U.S. Senate against Daines] “We can watch her talk about trans rights, democracy and bathrooms…BTW she will lose by 25, but she is a Democrat.”
Political Parties Can Change
First, a political party isn’t static or an unchangeable institution. THE PARTY IS THE PEOPLE. If you agree with most of a party’s political positions, but don’t like something about it… then work to change it! Tester has been entrenched in the Democratic Party of Montana for over three decades. If it’s been such an anvil, where was the effort to make it better? A U.S. Senator has a huge impact on their home state’s political positions. Use that power to build a bench, to strengthen the party, speak up on party positions! I know, I know, it’s hard. But that’s what it takes if you want to make a difference.
Democrat Reilly Neill deserves respect for her efforts
Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Reilly Neill
Secondly, what a thing to say about Senate Candidate Reilly Neill. She is a Democratic candidate speaking up in alignment with the Democratic Party’s platform and political positions. Good Democrats DO stand with LGBTQ rights, especially when they are under attack like now. We DO speak up about the rising dictatorship in our country that is threatening our democracy. What else can an ethical candidate do? Appeal to a non-existent middle to try to eke out an 8 point swing to win? An 8 point swing that will never materialize because you will be splitting the vote between an Independent and a Democrat?
Yeah, that’s trash.
Republicans are scared anyway (good)
Even with the potential benefit of vote splitting favoring Daines, Republicans see the winds of change in public opinion now. They have already come out with an attack ad on Seth Bodnar before he even announced. Looks like Daines seat isn’t perfectly invulnerable.
Let’s beat Daines by not splitting our vote. Let’s be strategic and vote for the person unafraid to share their positions on issues, willing to take the heat. That’s a fighter. That’s the kind of person we need to elect. And that is the Democrat who wins the primary in June.
by Ken Toole | Jan 10, 2026 | Democrats, Elections, Republicans
Some political consultant types are working to hand the next election to Steve Daines. We all know that beating Steve Daines in the next election will be tough, but if there was ever an election cycle where Democrats had a chance of beating an incumbent Republican Senator in a red state, it is the 2026 election.
Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior combined with his callous disregard for the welfare of the country may well be wearing thin, even with his normally staunch supporters in the Republican Party. He is mired in a sex scandal, his economic program is driving up prices, he has unleashed masked thugs on the American public, and he has turned to foreign military actions in Venezuela, which angers some in his “America First” base.
Trump’s poll numbers are dropping. Recently Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned him. Seventeen Republican members of the U.S. House abandoned him to vote to extend the ACA subsidies. Five Republican Senators voted against him in passing the War Powers Act Resolution. But the Montana delegation, and particularly Steve Daines, are “all in” with Trump. . . .and Daines is on the ballot in 2026. Trump could prove to be a political liability.
Enter the consultant class in Montana. Tired of losing elections they have concluded that the problem is the Democratic “brand.” Of course it could be that consultants and pollsters don’t know what they are doing and Democrats are in the mess they are in because they have been listening to consultants for far too long. No doubt they have polling that shows a Democrat just can’t win. Their solution is simple. Dump the Democrats and run for the middle of the road as “independents.” They do all of that while pointing fingers at the “extremists” in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they are finding support among frustrated groups and individuals who blame electoral losses on the Democratic Party.
This is not a new idea. The problem is, it doesn’t work. In 2022 the “ideal” independent candidate surfaced in the Eastern District Congressional race for investment advisor, Gary Buchanan of Billings. Buchanan had worked in Republican (Racicot) and Democratic (Schwinden) administrations on economic development. He was a well established presence in the business community and was known for his moderate positions on issues. In the election he was running against a relatively unknown Democrat named Penny Ronning and the controversial Freedom Caucus Republican incumbent, Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale raised a little over $2 million, Buchanan raised about $500,000 and Ronning raised around $175,000. In the final vote count, Rosendale won with 57% of the vote. Buchanan only garnered 22% of the vote, barely beating Democrat Ronning’s total of 20%, despite having more than twice as much money.
Another telling independent campaign failure in Montana occurred during the 2024 election for Public Service Commission District #4 in the northwest corner of the state. In that race Republican incumbent, Jennifer Fielder, faced a challenge from independent candidate, Elena Evans. Evans raised around $50,000. In addition an “independent committee”, the Montana Ratepayers Association, reported spending nearly $500,000 for the race to support Evans and defeat Fielder. Fielder raised around $12,000. Despite the fact that the independent outspent the Republican and an unprecedented amount of money was spent by a dark money group supporting her, Evans received only 47% of the vote.
Independent presidential candidate Ross Perot received about 26% of the vote in Montana in 1992. Ralph Nader received 1.3% of the vote when he ran for president as an independent in 2004 and .75% when he ran again in 2008. For a complete listing of the performance of independents running in legislative races, follow this link (spoiler alert–none have won) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_third-party_and_independent_performances_in_Montana_state_legislative_elections?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Two ballot measures which were predicated on taking advantage of people’s frustration with the two party system and implementing changes to our election process in the 2024 election – CI-126 and CI-127 (inaccurately referred to as the open primary initiatives) – failed by 51.1% and 60.4% respectively. This despite the fact that the campaign supporting them was well organized and well funded and there was no organized opposition.
The consulting group managing the ballot measures was a group called Fireweed. PSC candidate, Elena Evans, paid them at least $21,000 of the total she raised for her campaign. And rumor has it that Fireweed and others are approaching the Democratic Party about rule changes that would facilitate the party election of independent candidates.
Of course most people say they are fed up with the two party system. Polling routinely shows relatively large numbers of people who self identify as independents. But that does not show up clearly in voting trends. If split ticket voting is any indication of party loyalty, or lack of it, it appears that Montana voters are becoming more partisan. A recent analysis of split ticket voting done by the Montana Free Press relied on data from one researcher who said that some split ticket rates dropped from 20% in 2018 to 8% last year. https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/
Having an independent candidate, particularly a strong independent candidate as envisioned by the proponents of this idea, is dumping cold water on all down ticket Democrats on the ballot. Traditionally, Democrats in local, legislative and state-wide offices have benefitted from the campaigns at the top of the ticket. . .the so-called “coattail effect.” An independent at the top of the ticket will be punching down every time he is asked, “Why didn’t you run as a Democrat?” One can only hope that the Democrats running for other offices are paying careful attention to this effort.
So, now the rumor getting all the buzz in Helena hallways is that there is a group, paid political consultants (ie Fireweed) and others, promoting a run by University of Montana President Seth Bodner as an independent against Daines. Doing so would virtually hand this election to Steve Daines. The best they could achieve is to split the anti-Daines vote between the Democrat and the Independent. In the process they further weaken the Montana Democratic Party. It’s hard to understand how all of these so-called smartest people in the room come up with these harebrained schemes.
