by Ken Toole | Mar 7, 2026 | Independent, Politics, Republicans
Most of us were stunned at the Machiavellian maneuvering on the last day of the filing period for public office in Montana.
After a brief period of “will he or won’t he file as a Democrat,” Seth Bodnar filed as an independent for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat on March 4 at 9:17 AM.
Some time after that Steve Daines withdrew from the Senate race.
Billings lawyer, Kurt Alme, filed to run for the Senate seat at 4:52 PM on March 4, just eight minutes before the deadline.
So here’s one reason for the last minute shuffle on the filing deadline.
Republicans understood that Seth Bodnar could be a compelling candidate if he filed as a Democrat. Much less so if he filed as an independent. Incumbent Daines is the strongest person to protect that Republican seat from a serious Democratic challenge.
Early in the morning of the last day to file Bodnar files as an independent which kicked off this Spy vs Spy conspiracy. Daines resigns. Hours later Alme announces he is running with the support of Daines, President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy and Gov. Greg Gianforte. Obviously this plan has been in the works for some time.
But why would Daines do this now rather than waiting until after the election? It’s hard to argue that Alme or anyone else in the Republican ranks would be as strong a candidate as Daines, who has the power of incumbency and $4.9 million in the bank before the race even starts.
The answer is simple. If Daines resigned after the election the process to fill a vacant Senate seat is that the State Republican Central Committee nominates three people, and the Governor selects from those names. And the truth is the GOP in Montana is dominated by far-right looneys and Daines and his pals didn’t trust them to nominate someone who doesn’t wear a tin hat to bed. Someone like Alme (who would be a big improvement over Daines in the Senate).
Or it could just be that Daines is a megalomaniac who couldn’t stand not choosing his successor.
You decide.
by Ken Toole | Feb 9, 2026 | Democrats, Elections, Independent, Politics
Mr. Bodnar,
We are writing about the recent news coverage of your potential run for the U.S. Senate. If you are seriously considering such a run, we urge you to run as a Democrat rather than as an Independent.
Those urging you to run as an independent because a Democrat “can’t win” are wrong. Their opinion is apparently based on polling and Jon Tester’s recent loss to Tim Sheehy. Some “professional political people” in Montana are advocating that organizations and institutions forming the traditional Democratic base support moderate Republicans and Independents rather than Democrats out of desperation. They are mistaken. We wrote a blog post on the past performance of Independent candidates in Montana. We urge you to read it: https://wtf406.com/2026/01/handing-steve-daines-the-next-election/
Before going further, we would like to point out that the public discussion of this Independent scheme is all about strategy and game playing. Politics, at its best, is about the issues and policy initiatives to address those issues. At its worst, politics is anything-goes cynical game playing. . . and lots and lots of special interest money. Obviously, this Independent strategy falls into the second category.
In addition to the historical evidence in our post, we urge you to consider a couple other points.
First, the idea that your race as an Independent will avoid the tarnished brand of Democrats is naive. Before you have even announced, the Republicans are out with an attack ad: https://www.montanarightnow.com/montana/political-group-releases-ad-targeting-departing-um-president-seth-bodnar/article_309940b3-3514-463e-bbb9-ffd45149f759.html. The chair of the Missoula Republican Central Committee has an editorial circulating in papers around the state calling you “Sneaky Seth” among other things. Whether you run as an Independent or a Democrat, you will be smeared by the Republican attack machine. Steve Daines will be extremely well funded and will run a dirty campaign.
Second, Democratic base voters are a significant segment of the population you would have if you prevail in the primary. Instead of looking at polling, which is increasingly unreliable, we encourage you to look at actual election results in Montana. The 2024 election in the Eastern Congressional District illustrates the value of Democratic base voters. The Democratic candidate in that race was John Driscoll. Despite the fact that Driscoll ran virtually no campaign, he garnered 33.9 percent of the vote simply because he had a “D” behind his name on the ballot. That percentage would be even higher in the Western District. In the Eastern District race in 2022, Independent candidate Gary Buchanan captured only 22 percent of the vote.
As the deadline for filing approaches, we hope you will carefully consider which party more closely aligns with your beliefs on issues and realize that you have very little chance of prevailing as an Independent in Montana.
Sincerely,
WTF406
