Seth Bodnar and The Nebraska Plan

by Ken Toole | Jun 9, 2026 | Elections

In case you haven’t already heard the conspiracy theory floating around about the games supposedly being played in Montana’s U.S. Senate race on the Democratic ticket, let us run it down for you.

Step 1 — Bodnar files to run as an independent.

Step 2 — The winner of the Democratic primary, Alani Bankhead, resigns.

Step 3 — The State Central Committee of the Montana Democratic Party refuses to meet its statutory obligation to appoint a replacement for Bankhead.

Step 4 — With no Democrat on the general election ballot, Bodnar gets the votes of virtually all Democrats and enough swing voters to defeat the Republican candidate, Kurt Alme.

Though the whole thing sounds like the plot of a bad political thriller, it has obviously gained traction with Washington, D.C. power brokers and more than a few ordinary Montana Democrats who are desperate for an electoral victory.

This plan falls apart if any of the steps cannot be accomplished. The Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead, has been consistent and vocal that she has no intention of resigning. Even if she did resign—which seems pretty far‑fetched—the next step would require the Democratic Party to refuse to fill the position. This is a statutory requirement, not an “option.” There is little doubt that the failure of the State Democratic Party to act promptly to fill the vacancy would lead to litigation.

The promoters of this far‑fetched plan point to the state of Nebraska, where Steps 1, 2, and most of 3 have already been accomplished by U.S. Senate candidate Dan Osborn. The problem is that Nebraska is not Montana, and Seth Bodnar is not like Dan Osborn.

Nebraskan Dan Osborn vs. Seth Bodnar

Osborn is a bona fide working‑class populist. Born to a seamstress and a railroad laborer, he was raised in Nebraska. After high school he joined the Navy. He did not complete college; instead, he went to work in an industrial plant fixing machinery. While there, he became active in the union. In 2021 he led a 77‑day strike against the plant, forcing concessions from the corporation that owned it. He was subsequently fired. He ran for U.S. Senate in 2024 as an Independent* on a strong populist platform. There was no Democrat in the race.  He lost by only 7 points, surprising pundits in this strongly Republican state.

Bodnar presents a very different profile. His parents were educators in Pennsylvania. He went to West Point—probably the most elite military school in the country (it requires a congressional or vice presidential recommendation to attend as do the Naval Academy and Air Force Academy)—and graduated first in his class. After West Point he became a Rhodes Scholar. He joined the military, was deployed several times, and served in the Iraq War. In 2011 he went to work for the General Electric Corporation and became a senior executive. In 2018 he became President of the University of Montana, where he served until resigning to run for Senate.

The contrast between these two candidates is not to disparage Bodnar’s impressive résumé. It is presented to point out that Bodnar is a very different candidate from Nebraska’s Dan Osborn.

Nebraska Politics Are Not Like Montana’s

Aside from the obvious geographic and economic differences between the two states, Nebraska also has a very different political culture. Nebraska has the only unicameral (one‑house) legislature in the country. Legislators—who are all called “Senator”—run without party affiliation in nonpartisan primaries. Until recent elections, Montana was known as a “purple” state with a relatively large number of ticket‑splitters. Nebraska has been reliably Republican for a much longer period of time.

Where the clandestine political intrigue now surrounding the Montana Democratic Party—and the conspiracy theory at the center of this post—reeks of smoke‑filled rooms and bowler derbies, the approach of the Nebraska Democratic Party has been open and honest in endorsing Osborn’s campaign. Below is a statement from a March 3, 2026 press release from the Nebraska Democratic Party:

“The Nebraska Democratic Party made a deliberate, principled decision not to field a candidate in the U.S. Senate race. We believe Dan Osborn – a veteran, a mechanic, a Nebraskan, and an independent voice – represents the best opportunity to defeat Pete Ricketts and deliver real results for working families.”

The Nebraska primary election was held on May 12, 2026. There were two Democrats on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate: Cindy Burbank and William Forbes. Forbes was widely regarded as a plant from incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pete Ricketts. Burbank was forthright about her intent to resign and leave the field open for Osborn to challenge Ricketts. She won the Democratic primary with almost 90% of the vote.

But that is not the end of the story. The Republican Secretary of State, Bob Evnan, had attempted to keep Burbank off the ballot, arguing that she intended to violate her oath of office. He was ordered to place her name on the ballot by the Nebraska Supreme Court. He has said he will seek guidance from Republican State Attorney General Mike Hilgers on whether he must accept Burbank’s resignation and remove her name from the general election ballot in November.

Where Things Stand Now

Alani Bankhead has been steadfast in her refusal to step aside for Seth Bodnar. She appears resolute in her commitment, and she does not appear to be someone who is easily pushed around. That said, she is likely to receive a lot of pressure from national political figures and politicos around Montana.

But if she resigns, this mess lands squarely in the lap of the State Democratic Party. If it fails to meet its legal obligation to replace her on the ballot, two new players will likely enter the game: Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and Attorney General Austin Knudsen… let that sink in.

*correction- the original post said Osborn ran as a Democrat in 2024.  He ran as an Independent.