The “Democratic Brand” Died in The Middle of the Road
“There’s Nothing in the Middle of the Road but Yellow Stripes and Dead Armadillos.”
Jim Hightower, Progressive Texas Politician and Commentator
Full disclosure: I served in the Montana Senate with Jon Tester. I worked for Nancy Keenan when she was Superintendent of Public Instruction. I served as the Vice Chair and Chair of the Lewis and Clark Central Committee. I was elected as the Western District Chair’s Representative on the State Democratic Party Executive Board. I served as a senate representative on the Montana Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. I was elected twice to the Montana Senate and once to the Montana Public Service Commission. I have founded, managed and volunteered for progressive organizations in Montana for my entire career. I have been an active Democrat despite having a lot frustration with the party because I recognize the need for organizations which provide structure, transparency and democratic accountability in our political process.
Great Falls, MT
Bodnar’s Stable of Politician Endorsements
The Bodnar campaign is moving into high gear. His pockets are filled with cash. Much of it coming from Washington, DC elites and lobbyists. He is now establishing his electoral credibility by announcing a stable of high profile Montana politicians, mostly Democrats. Most of these endorsers argue that these are desperate political times. They say the “Democratic brand” is so tarnished a Democrat can’t win state-wide office.
Ironically, if the finger of blame belongs anywhere for the current dysfunction in our political system and the Montana Democratic Party in particular, these folks deserve much of the blame. Over the years they have consistently emphasized reaching out to the “middle-of-the-road” voters while marginalizing the traditional progressive base in the Democratic Party.
Bodnar’s recent endorsements include:
Jon Tester- 18 years representing Montana in the US Senate. He lost 2024 election despite spending more money than Tim Sheehy, (Tester $79 mm, Sheehy $21mm, PAC spending $115mm roughly split evenly) The Montana Free Press described him this way “Tester positions himself as a moderate willing to work with or oppose either Trump or Biden depending on the issue,”
Max Baucus- 35 years representing Montana in the US Senate. His Wikipedia page summarized him this way, “he was known for straddling party lines and frequently bucking his own party on taxes, health care, the environment, and gun control. Baucus was the primary author of our current health care system (along with his former Chief of Staff, Jim Messina, who was also an advisor to Tester’s 2006 campaign for Senate and is now encouraging Bodnar’s independent run).
For more details on Baucus follow this link: https://sunlightfoundation.com/2009/06/22/the-max-baucus-health-care-lobbyist-complex/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Nancy Keenan- four years as the Executive Director of the Montana Democratic Party ending in 2019. Six years serving in the Montana House of Representatives representing Anaconda ending in 1989. She subsequently served three terms as The Superintendent of Public Instruction until 2001.
Dorothy Bradley- Served a total eight terms in the Montana House of Representatives. She ran against Pat Williams in the Democratic Primary for Congress. She lost. She ran for Governor in 1992. She was defeated in the general election by Marc Racicot. She also served on the board of NorthWestern Energy from 2009 to 2017. The NWE 2016 Proxy Statement says she received $211,840 in stock and cash compensation. The same document shows that she held $1,099,648 in stock and “deferred stock units”
Mary Sexton- Served as a Teton County Commissioner from 1999 to 2004. She ran for PSC in 2000 losing to Tom Schneider in the primary. She also ran as John Vincent’s running mate in 2004 gubernatorial race. She and Vincent were defeated by Brian Schweitzer and John Bohlinger (a Republican, ahem). She was head of the Montana Department of Natural Resources from 2006 to 2013. She served as Chair of the Montana Democratic Party from 2016 to 2018.
Bodnar also has been endorsed by former Governor, Marc Racicot. Perhaps his greatest “accomplishment” was shepherding electric deregulation through the Montana legislature. We’re not going through his long, soiled career as a republican hack/lobbyist during the Bush 2 administration. Take a look for yourself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Racicot.
These folks, and others like them, have been calling the shots in the Montana Democratic Party for years. And virtually every time they or their chosen candidates have lost with their middle of the road strategies and rhetoric they point immediately at progressives and place the blame on us. Too green, too gay, too anti-business, too Missoula, and so it goes. It has become the common wisdom among party elites and the consultant class. . . .and it is bullshit.
Consider the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary in Montana
The progressive candidate was Bernie Sanders, the insiders’ choice was Hillary Clinton. Much to the surprise of establishment Democrats, Bernie Sanders won the popular vote in the primary with 51.56% of the vote. He won in the urban centers you might predict (Missoula, Bozeman, Lewis and Clark). He also won many more rural counties than Clinton. So much for saying rural people don’t like progressive candidates.
Based on the popular vote, Sanders was awarded 11 delegates to go to the National Democratic Convention, Clinton was awarded 10. But Montana had six “unpledged superdelegates” who also had votes at the convention five of those voted for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she lost the popular vote . Three were Superdelegates because they were members of the Democratic National Committee, Jacquie Helt and Jim Larson (both Montana labor leaders) and Jorge Quintana, who served as chief legal counsel for Democratic Secretary of State, Linda McCulloch. The other superdelegates who voted for Clinton were Senator Jon Tester and Governor Steve Bullock. The lone superdelegate who supported Sanders was Jean Lemire Dahman a rancher from eastern Montana.
In the end, after a bit of a kerfuffle in the Montana delegation on the floor of the convention, Clinton was awarded 15 delegates and Sanders was awarded 12. Of course the Montana delegate count has little effect on the Presidential nomination. But this episode pretty clearly demonstrates who controls the Democratic party in the state and it isn’t the progressive wing.
“Wave” Elections Happen
The 2010 election was the first mid-term election of the Obama Administration. A red wave swept the country. Luckily there was only one state-wide race on the ballot in Montana. Republican Denny Rehberg won it with 60% of the vote. Republicans flipped 18 seats in the Montana House and took control of the senate with a six vote majority. Republicans also gained two seats on the PSC. We are dealing with the results of the 2010 election to this day. All the money in the world, all of the sophisticated polling and strategic maneuvering in the world are simply window dressing in an election like this.
Now, along comes the 2026 election. It is the first mid-term election of Trump’s second term. We are engaged in a war he started in the Middle East. Inflation is steadily increasing, and his economic policies have wreaked havoc on numerous sectors of the economy. Assuming Trump doesn’t figure out a way to cancel or steal the election, it has the potential to be a blue wave election.
A Missed Opportunity to Unify Montana Democrats
Brian Schweitzer and others encouraged Bodnar to run as a Democrat (WTF406 among them https://wtf406.com/2026/02/open-letter-to-seth-bodnar/). But apparently others like consultant Jim Messina, Jon Tester and the endorsers listed in this post are convinced a Democrat can’t win in Montana (despite the fact that all of them have been elected in Montana as Democrats in the past).
Of course the argument has been that these are unique times and Trump and MAGA pose an existential threat to our democracy. But they have gone a step further in discouraging Bodnar from filing as a Democrat. It is hard to know what evidence they rely on other than some undisclosed polling and their years of experience. They are not relying on the history of success of independent candidates on the Montana ballot. The evidence there is not encouraging. (https://wtf406.com/2026/01/handing-steve-daines-the-next-election/).
By filing as an independent Bodnar forgoes the Democratic base vote. The promoters of his independent candidacy have also been promoting the idea that the winner of the Democratic primary would withdraw leaving a mano-a-mano contest between the Republican Kurt Alme and Bodnar. (See our previous post https://wtf406.com/2026/06/seth-bodnar-and-the-nebraska-plan/) Thus far the Democratic candidate, Alani Bankhead, isn’t going along with this weird idea.
But it is clear that Bodnar’s decision is dividing Democrats. So far, disgruntled Republicans are not flocking to his campaign. We can’t really say what percentage of voters are independent. But, we know that regularly partisan voters often identify themselves as independents when asked about their party affiliation by pollsters. A more accurate method than polling is to look at voters who voted for candidates from both parties on the same ballot, so called “ticket splitters” in Montana elections. According to one estimate ticket splitting in Montana has declined from 20% in 2016 to 8% in 2024. (https://montanafreepress.org/2025/12/08/how-has-ticket-splitting-changed-in-montana/). Bad news for Bodnar.
Truth is nobody knows . . .
It is true that we are in uncharted waters in this election cycle. The authoritarian take over of our government and institutions is well underway. It is also true that we have never seen this amount of money in politics and the sleazy win-at-any-cost consultant crowd it has attracted. Reilly Neill didn’t appear to be able to raise the kind of money and support needed for a US Senate race despite her hard work. Alani Bankhead is really an unknown commodity in Montana politics. It may be true that Seth Bodnar is the strongest of the three to take on Kurt Alme.
But it is also true that his independent candidacy is damaging the Democratic Party and alienating a lot of loyal and consistent Democratic volunteers and voters. It is also damaging to Democrats in down ticket races.
And once you strip it all down, Bodnar’s choice to run as an independent is driven by money, speculative polling and analysis by old office holders and consultants. It is the opposite of the kind of grass roots organizing and support most people say they want to see in our politics.
Bodnar could have run as a Democrat but chose not to. Ironically, If Kurt Alme wins this election, the same old crowd will point their fingers and blame the progressives who didn’t jump on board with Bodnar.
